Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T22:28:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23e4…f24a world 43 markets active 2h ago coverage 254d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$3 (-0%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate40%17W / 25L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$26per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit74%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% −$3
other 30% −$1
politics 10% $0
sports 8% $0
finance 5% $0
tech 3% $0
crypto 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +0.0% -9.5% 62% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 15 -0.3% -9.8% 53% 0% -9.9%
≤90d 17 -0.6% -10.0% 47% 0% -10.0%
all 42 -0.0% -9.6% 40% 0% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.8%
10% -18.2% 0% -18.4%
15% -26.1% 0% -26.3%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 24% · top 2 44% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -0% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.37 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

254d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)40%
Wins / losses17 / 25
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage254d
Avg bet$26
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit74%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Yes 9¢ 8¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 20 $57 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $11 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $52 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $42 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $57 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $52 −$1 -2%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $41 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 26 $59 −$1 -2%
Will Alberta join the US? May 25 $53 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 25 $53 $0 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $25 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? May 24 $49 −$2 -4%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 23 $44 $0 +1%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 23 $2 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 21 $4 $0 -2%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 21 $7 $0 -3%
Will the Green Bay Packers win Super Bowl 2026? Jan 31 $21 $0 +0%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 26 $21 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-12-02? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Leeds United win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $32 $0 +0%
Will KT Rolster win LoL Worlds 2025? Oct 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 20 $23 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 20 $10 $0 -1%
Will Manchester United win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 19 $14 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Ghislaine Maxwell in 2025? Oct 19 $3 $0 +7%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 18 $22 $0 -0%
Will Galatasaray win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 18 $21 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Oct 17 $14 $0 +0%
Will the Philadelphia 76ers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025? Oct 17 $9 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Oct 17 $8 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 14 $8 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2025? Oct 14 $17 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2025 World Series? Oct 13 $8 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,300 by December 31? Oct 13 $8 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Oct 12 $7 $0 +1%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Oct 12 $24 $0 -0%
Will the San Francisco 49ers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 12 $48 $0 +0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 11 $24 $0 +0%
Will Meta have the top AI model on December 31? Oct 10 $24 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $1 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $2 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $48 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 57¢ $6 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 57¢ $57 1h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 17¢ $2 15h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $7 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL Yes 16¢ $3 17h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY Yes 16¢ $11 21h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $15 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $12 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $25 25h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $52 29h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 96¢ $52 30h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $5 36h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 96¢ $47 36h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $23 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $19 40h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $38 42h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $4 42h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 81¢ $57 43h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 81¢ $57 44h
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $10 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $42 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $8 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 54¢ $45 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL Yes 9¢ $14 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY Yes 9¢ $14 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $6 2d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $33 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.30 · official $0.30 (match) · 141 history records