Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T20:28:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
23 0x23e4…90bc crypto 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 25d
RISKYcopy with care crypto specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL −$10 (-2%) realized −$6 · open −$4
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +36% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +23% what you keep after slip
Net edge+23%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate57%4W / 3L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$63now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 25d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$2
crypto 30% −$5
other 18% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+23.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +33.0% +20.3% 50% 50% -28.8%
≤30d 7 +36.2% +23.2% 57% 57% -11.5%
≤90d 7 +36.2% +23.2% 57% 57% -11.5%
all 7 +36.2% +23.2% 57% 57% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +23.2% 57% -11.5%
10% +11.4% 57% -19.9%
15% +0.7% 43% -27.7%
20% -9.2% 43% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 43% · top 2 84% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +36% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
2.2 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$26 vs −$37 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$63
Realized−$6
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)57%
Wins / losses4 / 3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)7 / 8
History coverage25d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $68 $63 −$4 (-7%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 20 $42 −$40 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 20 $30 +$8 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 20 $26 −$25 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 20 $18 +$43 +244%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 20 $5 +$9 +166%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 16 $127 −$47 -37%
US-Iran nuclear deal before 2027? Jun 11 $82 +$45 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $63.00 · official $63.00 (match) · 24 history records