Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T09:40:14+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

23
0x23e5…44d4
crypto · 2188 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
+$452 +5%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$435 · open −$1
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$6
Realized+$435
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses1176 / 933
Open positions1
Markets (closed)2109 / 2188
History coverage45d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day51.5
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 2109 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$546
7 days−$82
14 days+$621
30 days+$648
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Down 59¢ 52¢ $7 $6 −$1 (-13%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Up 48¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Up 47¢ 0¢ $6 $0 −$6 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Down 40¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 4, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 50¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Up 55¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Up 45¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Up 46¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 4, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 12, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Down 49¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Down 55¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Up 37¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 41¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Up 77¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Up 42¢ 0¢ $9 $0 −$9 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $7 $0 −$7 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Down 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Up 51¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:45AM-10:50AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:50AM-10:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 5:50AM-5:55AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 14 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 14 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 26, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 14 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 14 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 25, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 14 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 27, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 14 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% +$1,283
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET BUY Down 59¢ $7 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $7 38m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Down 52¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 3h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 14, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Down 65¢ $7 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 69¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 63¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $7 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Up 69¢ $7 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET BUY Down 68¢ $7 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $7 8h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 13, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $7 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 56¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 61¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $7 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)-7.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 455 -0.7% -10.2% 59% 59% -12.4%
≤30d 806 +16.0% +5.0% 67% 67% +3.7%
≤90d 2109 +2.4% -7.4% 56% 56% -4.7%
all 2109 +2.4% -7.4% 56% 56% -4.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover51.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -7.4% 56% -4.7%
10% ← realistic here -16.2% 56% -13.8%
15% -24.3% 55% -22.2%
20% -31.7% 54% -29.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $6.02 · official $6.02 (match) · 3500 history records