Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T06:43:59+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
23 0x23e8…1e1e crypto 64 markets active 2h ago coverage 549d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$11 (-0%) realized −$11 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate78%49W / 14L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$192per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$94now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 49% −$7
sports 38% −$5
crypto 8% $0
politics 2% $0
tech 2% +$1
world 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 2 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 8 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
all 63 -0.1% -9.6% 78% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.6%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 27% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.06 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

549d coverage
Net worth$94
Realized−$11
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses49 / 14
Open positions1
Markets (closed)63 / 64
History coverage549d
Avg bet$192
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 63 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $94 $94 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? Jun 03 $28 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 03 $56 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? May 04 $3 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? May 04 $13 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? May 04 $28 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? May 04 $53 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? Apr 02 $31 $0 +0%
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? Apr 02 $64 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? Mar 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? Mar 03 $74 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? Feb 01 $7 $0 +0%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $37 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? Feb 01 $51 $0 +1%
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? Jan 02 $14 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? Jan 02 $75 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? Dec 03 $20 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? Dec 03 $60 $0 +0%
Ethereum all time high by October 31? Nov 04 $16 $0 +0%
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 04 $28 $0 +1%
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? Nov 04 $42 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? Oct 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? Oct 03 $57 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? Sep 01 $12 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? Sep 01 $31 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? Sep 01 $47 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? Aug 03 $23 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? Aug 03 $58 $0 +0%
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? Jul 01 $34 $0 +0%
Will XRP reach $4.0 in June? Jul 01 $41 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $80k in May? Jun 14 $10 $0 +0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.50 in May? Jun 14 $15 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150k in May? Jun 14 $17 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1000 in April? May 02 $2 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft be the largest company in the world by market cap on Ap May 02 $6 $0 +1%
Will XRP dip to $1.00 in April? May 02 $6 $0 +0%
TikTok sale announced before May? May 02 $9 $0 +1%
U.S. recession before May 2025? May 02 $10 $0 +0%
Israel x Hamas ceasefire before May? May 02 $11 $0 +1%
Will TikTok be banned again before May? May 02 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump remove tariff on Canada before May? May 02 $14 $0 +1%
Will Jack Doohan be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Apr 21 $117 $0 -0%
Will the Liberal Party win the most seats in Saskatchewan in the next Apr 17 $75 $0 -0%
Will the Greens win the most seats in the next Australian parliamentar Apr 17 $55 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Elon Musk in his first 100 days? Apr 13 $72 $0 -0%
XRP all time high by March 31? Apr 03 $7 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the top AI model on March 31? Apr 03 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 by March 31? Apr 03 $12 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by March? Apr 03 $26 $0 +2%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the Eastern Conference? Mar 09 $5,749 −$6 -0%
Will the New Orleans Pelicans win the 2025 NBA Finals? Mar 08 $4,609 −$5 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin reach $77,500 in June? BUY No 100¢ $94 1h
Will Hyperliquid dip to $38 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 29d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? BUY No 100¢ $56 31d
Will Solana dip to $50 in April? BUY No 100¢ $3 61d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in April? BUY No 100¢ $13 62d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,200 in April? BUY No 100¢ $28 62d
Will Solana dip to $30 in April? BUY No 100¢ $53 62d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $7 91d
Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $24 92d
Will Chainlink reach $20 in March? BUY No 100¢ $64 93d
Will XRP reach $3.00 in February? BUY No 100¢ $10 121d
Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? BUY No 100¢ $74 123d
Will Bitcoin dip to $45,000 in January? BUY No 100¢ $7 149d
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY No 100¢ $37 149d
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? BUY Yes 99¢ $51 150d
Will BNB dip to $500 in December? BUY No 100¢ $14 181d
Will XRP reach $6.00 before 2026? BUY No 100¢ $75 183d
Will XRP reach $4.20 in November? BUY No 100¢ $20 212d
Will Bitcoin reach $115,000 in November? BUY No 100¢ $60 212d
Ethereum all time high by October 31? BUY No 100¢ $16 240d
Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? BUY Yes 99¢ $28 242d
Will Bitcoin reach $200k in October? BUY No 100¢ $42 242d
Will Ethereum dip to $2400 in September? BUY No 100¢ $17 273d
Will Bitcoin reach $130K in September? BUY No 100¢ $57 274d
Will Bitcoin dip to $90K in August? BUY No 100¢ $12 301d
Will XRP dip to $2.30 in August? BUY No 100¢ $31 301d
Will xAI have the top AI model on August 31? BUY No 100¢ $47 303d
Will XRP dip to $1.9 in July? BUY No 100¢ $23 334d
Will Ethereum dip to $2100 in July? BUY No 100¢ $58 334d
Will XRP dip to $1.7 in June? BUY No 100¢ $34 362d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $93.92 · official $93.92 (match) · 134 history records