Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T22:27:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23e8…4697 other 36 markets active 0h ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$12 (-2%) realized −$11 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%19W / 16L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day3.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$29now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$41
7 days+$50
14 days+$38
30 days−$23
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 67% +$42
politics 21% −$45
sports 6% −$26
crypto 4% +$4
tech 2% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-18.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 +1.1% -8.5% 67% 52% -0.2%
≤30d 35 -10.1% -18.7% 54% 43% -12.5%
≤90d 35 -10.1% -18.7% 54% 43% -12.5%
all 35 -10.1% -18.7% 54% 43% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.7% 43% -12.5%
10% -26.4% 37% -20.9%
15% -33.5% 31% -28.5%
20% -40.1% 20% -35.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 21% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
21% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -22% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$7 · ×0.68 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$29
Realized−$11
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses19 / 16
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions1
Markets (closed)35 / 36
History coverage22d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day3.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 35 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? Yes 46¢ 44¢ $30 $29 −$1 (-4%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 25 $2 +$1 +36%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? Jun 25 $3 +$1 +28%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $5 +$1 +19%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $5 −$3 -65%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $35 −$9 -25%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $55 +$5 +10%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $5 +$2 +32%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $20 +$1 +4%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $10 +$15 +152%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $32 +$20 +63%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? Jun 24 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $95 +$1 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $14 −$5 -39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $118 +$13 +11%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Spain 3 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $29 +$13 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $18 +$11 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 13 $5 $0 -1%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $1 +$1 +114%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 11 $17 −$14 -83%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $1 +$1 +101%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $1 $0 +41%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $150 −$44 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Jun 09 $1 +$1 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $15 +$1 +4%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 05 $20 −$10 -49%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 44¢ $20 2m
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Germany? BUY Yes 78¢ $3 36m
Exact Score: Curaçao 0 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 73¢ $2 37m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 18¢ $2 39m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 57m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 45¢ $27 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 56¢ $20 2h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 61¢ $15 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 9h
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 84¢ $5 19h
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 72¢ $5 19h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 99¢ $50 19h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 96¢ $20 26h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 39¢ $10 27h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 35h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $5 35h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 43h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 59¢ $10 43h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 99¢ $90 2d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $5 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 94¢ $4 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 29¢ $4 2d
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 64¢ $11 2d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 65¢ $10 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 0¢ $0 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 96¢ $3 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 93¢ $100 2d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 71¢ $15 2d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $28.79 · official $28.79 (match) · 84 history records