Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T02:39:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
23 0x23e9…109f other 153 markets active 1h ago coverage 599d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,861 (-8%) realized −$1,745 · open −$116
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate42%60W / 82L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$144per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Fees−$41est.
Kalshi-fit67%portable
Net worth$694now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,325
7 days+$1,990
14 days+$1,990
30 days+$1,990
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 38% +$304
other 21% −$1,794
sports 14% +$1,232
culture 11% +$11
world 7% +$454
politics 6% −$615
tech 2% −$155
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-29.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 27 +92.8% +74.4% 78% 74% +24.1%
≤30d 27 +92.8% +74.4% 78% 74% +24.1%
≤90d 27 +92.8% +74.4% 78% 74% +24.1%
all 142 -21.6% -29.1% 42% 31% -11.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.1% 31% -11.5%
10% -35.9% 25% -20.0%
15% -42.1% 22% -27.7%
20% -47.8% 15% -34.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +37% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -20% → late -23% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$79 vs −$63 · ×1.25 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

599d coverage
Net worth$694
Realized−$1,745
Unrealized−$116
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses60 / 82
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$41
Open positions10
Markets (closed)142 / 153
History coverage599d
Avg bet$144
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit67%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 142 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 35¢ 34¢ $200 $194 −$6 (-3%)
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 25¢ 26¢ $100 $100 +$0 (+0%)
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? No 57¢ 56¢ $100 $100 −$0 (-0%)
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? Yes 57¢ 55¢ $100 $96 −$4 (-4%)
Will Spider-Man: Brand New Day be the top grossing movie of 2026? No 65¢ 34¢ $150 $77 −$73 (-49%)
Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 44¢ 39¢ $40 $35 −$5 (-11%)
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 10¢ $30 $19 −$11 (-36%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $20 $12 −$8 (-39%)
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup? Yes 17¢ 10¢ $20 $12 −$9 (-42%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 46 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $102 +$4 +4%
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $101 +$68 +67%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 +$107 +105%
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay Jun 28 $612 +$1,263 +206%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup Jun 27 $10 −$10 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists Jun 27 $153 −$150 -98%
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals Jun 27 $153 −$150 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $304 +$296 +97%
Deniz Undav: 1+ shots Jun 26 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $508 −$500 -98%
Set Handicap: Hussey (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) Jun 24 $1,715 −$58 -3%
Will Frankenstein win Best Production Design at the 98th Academy Award Jun 24 $50 +$19 +38%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$4B one day after launch? Jun 24 $50 +$28 +56%
Will Frankenstein win Best Costume Design at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 24 $50 +$32 +64%
Will Sean Penn win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 24 $35 +$78 +223%
Will Benicio Del Toro win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Aw Jun 24 $100 +$17 +17%
Will Zcash hit $1000 by December 31? Jun 24 $100 +$27 +27%
Will Emma Stone be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awar Jun 24 $100 +$38 +38%
Will Tiffany Little Canfield & Bernard Telsey (Wicked: For Good) be no Jun 24 $100 +$50 +50%
Lighter market cap (FDV) >$3B one day after launch? Jun 24 $100 +$50 +50%
Will Train Dreams be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Aw Jun 24 $100 +$64 +64%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jun 24 $105 +$73 +70%
Will Leonardo DiCaprio win Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 24 $200 +$67 +33%
Will Bugonia be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 24 $180 +$108 +60%
Will F1 be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Jun 24 $20 +$313 +1567%
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98t Jun 24 $200 +$255 +127%
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 13 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the top grossing movie of 2025? Dec 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the third highest grossing movie of 2025? Dec 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Avatar 3 be the second highest grossing movie of 2025? Dec 13 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Trump release the Epstein files by December 19? Dec 13 $350 −$350 -100%
Will Robin D. Cook (Frankenstein) be nominated for Achievement in Cast Dec 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will The Life of Chuck be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Acade Dec 12 $60 −$60 -100%
Will Jay Kelly be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Award Dec 12 $130 −$30 -23%
Will A House of Dynamite win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Acad Dec 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Sam Altman be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 12 $70 −$67 -95%
Will Jensen Huang be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 12 $70 −$63 -90%
Will AI be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 12 $70 −$66 -94%
Will Pope Leo XIV be on the Time 2025 person of the year shortlist? Dec 12 $70 −$62 -89%
Will Michael B. Jordan be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Dec 12 $143 −$143 -100%
Will Francine Maisler (Sinners) be nominated for Achievement in Castin Dec 12 $45 −$45 -100%
Will Sinners win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sinners be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Dec 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Lucy Bevan & Emily Brockmann (F1) be nominated for Achievement in Dec 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kei Kawamura & Yumi Takada (Rental Family) be nominated for Achie Dec 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Yorgos Lanthimos be nominated for Best Director at the 98th Acade Dec 12 $25 −$25 -100%
Will Douglas Aibel & Nina Gold (Jay Kelly) be nominated for Achievemen Dec 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will One Battle After Another win Best Cinematography at the 98th Acad Dec 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Jacob Elordi win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards Dec 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 24¢ $107 42m
DR Congo vs. Uzbekistan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 59¢ $101 1h
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-27? BUY No 48¢ $102 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 3h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 3h
Will Belgium reach the Quarterfinals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 35¢ $102 3h
Will Egypt be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY No 57¢ $101 10h
Will Australia be eliminated in the Round of 32 of the World Cup? BUY Yes 57¢ $101 10h
Will Uruguay advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup BUY Yes 16¢ $10 24h
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 21¢ $11 25h
Will Ivory Coast be the furthest advancing CAF nation at the World Cup BUY Yes 15¢ $10 25h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 25h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 25h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 25h
Will Michael Olise record the most assists at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 44¢ $10 25h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 22¢ $102 25h
Will Kylian Mbappe be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 25¢ $102 25h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 23¢ $51 25h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 22¢ $51 25h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ goals BUY Yes 35¢ $102 27h
Lamine Yamal: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $102 27h
Spread: Jordan (-1.5) AND Spread: Colombia (-1.5) AND Spread: Panama ( BUY 81¢ $500 2d
Deniz Undav: 1+ shots BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Spread: Japan (-1.5) AND Spread: United States (-1.5) AND Will Uruguay BUY 32¢ $612 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY No 50¢ $304 3d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? BUY No 50¢ $508 3d
Set Handicap: Hussey (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) BUY Fonseca 51¢ $497 3d
Set Handicap: Hussey (-1.5) vs Fonseca (+1.5) BUY Fonseca 51¢ $1,218 3d
Will Sentimental Value win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? BUY Yes $5 197d
Will Ariana Grande be nominated for Best Supporting Actress at the 98t BUY No 39¢ $40 197d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $694.18 · official $1,191.38 · 600 history records