Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T03:13:48+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23e9…29ff politics 78 markets active 2h ago coverage 320d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate28%22W / 56L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$9
7 days−$8
14 days−$8
30 days−$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 54% −$2
world 18% −$5
other 12% −$6
sports 9% +$1
tech 3% −$39
culture 1% +$1
economics 1% −$1
crypto 1% $0
finance 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 -1.1% -10.6% 33% 0% -10.4%
≤30d 9 -1.1% -10.6% 33% 0% -10.4%
≤90d 24 -3.5% -12.7% 29% 0% -10.6%
all 78 -1.4% -10.7% 28% 0% -10.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.7% 0% -10.4%
10% -19.3% 0% -18.9%
15% -27.1% 0% -26.8%
20% -34.2% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.28 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.22 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

320d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses22 / 56
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions0
Markets (closed)78 / 78
History coverage320d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 78 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $154 +$1 +0%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 14 $86 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $16 $0 -2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 13 $88 −$1 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 13 $104 −$8 -8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $104 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 12 $132 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 09 $103 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $94 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? May 02 $137 +$3 +2%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 30 $6 −$1 -20%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 25 $21 $0 -2%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 24 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in April 2026? Apr 24 $184 −$5 -2%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? Apr 23 $108 −$41 -38%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino finish in second place in the first roun Apr 21 $27 −$1 -4%
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7? Apr 20 $444 +$3 +1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 07 $165 −$4 -2%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 06 $627 −$1 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $533 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 04 $9 −$1 -8%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 04 $29 −$1 -2%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 04 $684 +$1 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 03 $572 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Oct 24 $61 $0 -0%
Will Red Bull Racing be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Sep 11 $7 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Aug 23 $49 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Aug 22 $10 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $20,000 by December 31, 2025? Aug 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Aug 22 $23 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $3000 in August? Aug 22 $5 $0 +2%
Will Marco Rubio leave the Trump administration in 2025? Aug 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Aug 22 $6 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be the first leader out in 2025? Aug 21 $12 $0 +0%
Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping in August? Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Aug 21 $6 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $95K in August? Aug 21 $1 $0 -13%
Will Elon Musk be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Aug 20 $50 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Aug 20 $54 +$1 +2%
Will Ferrari be the 2025 Constructors Champion? Aug 19 $5 $0 -0%
Will the Conservative Liberals win the most seats in the 2025 Netherla Aug 19 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Aug 19 $5 $0 +0%
Will Max Verstappen finish second in the 2025 Drivers Championship? Aug 19 $56 −$1 -2%
Will Trump meet with Elon Musk in August? Aug 17 $5 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in US? Aug 17 $5 $0 +1%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Trump deport less than 250,000? Aug 14 $12 $0 -0%
Will Elon and DOGE cut between $50-100b in federal spending in 2025? Aug 14 $5 $0 -0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Aug 12 $17 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $116K and $117K on August 10 at 5 Aug 12 $6 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 75¢ $95 1h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 74¢ $94 3h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 92¢ $26 10h
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $26 11h
Netanyahu out by June 30? SELL No 99¢ $86 18h
Netanyahu out by June 30? BUY No 99¢ $86 20h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 16¢ $15 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $9 28h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 16¢ $7 28h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $16 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL No 76¢ $71 32h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY No 77¢ $88 34h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 49¢ $97 35h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 53¢ $104 39h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $21 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $37 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $47 46h
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $104 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 25¢ $26 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $27 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 27¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $1 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $11 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $10 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $9 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 10¢ $3 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 10¢ $34 2d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 56¢ $3 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 54¢ $103 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 53¢ $104 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 277 history records