Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T06:39:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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23 0x23eb…beb2 crypto 1840 markets active 0h ago coverage 30d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 29d only
✗ bot/MM pace (87 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL −$1,960 (-10%) realized −$1,967 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate55%881W / 719L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day86.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$120
7 days+$367
14 days+$524
30 days−$344
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$650
other 0% $0
sports 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (87 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)+0.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 896 +14.9% +3.9% 56% 54% -5.6%
≤30d 1600 +10.9% +0.3% 55% 54% -10.9%
≤90d 1600 +10.9% +0.3% 55% 54% -10.9%
all 1600 +10.9% +0.3% 55% 54% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover86.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +0.3% 54% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here -9.3% 54% -19.5%
15% -18.1% 53% -27.2%
20% -26.1% 52% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 2% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
1% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +15% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$7 vs −$10 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

30d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$1,967
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses881 / 719
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)1600 / 1840
History coverage30d ⚠
Avg bet$11
Trades / day86.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 1600 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 48¢ 92¢ $6 $11 +$5 (+93%)
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Up 48¢ 82¢ $2 $4 +$2 (+72%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 498 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 11, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 18, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 17, 10:40AM-10:45AM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 19, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 23 $31 −$31 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 23 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12AM ET Jun 23 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 19, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 23 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 23 $21 −$21 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - May 18, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 23 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 23 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 23 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 23 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 23 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 5:20AM-5:25AM ET Jun 23 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - April 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 23 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 23 $45 −$45 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 9m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $1 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 14m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $2 19m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $2 29m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 29m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 34m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 34m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 39m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $0 39m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 44m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Down 48¢ $2 49m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $101 52m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 54m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $56 55m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $15.22 · official $14.28 (match) · 3500 history records