Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T09:50:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
23 0x23ee…e453 other 134 markets active 2d ago coverage 156d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,514 (-2%) realized −$1,514 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%24W / 109L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$628per market
Trades / day1.9pace
Fees−$21est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$599now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$12
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 52% −$110
politics 32% −$34
sports 7% −$1,341
world 3% −$39
crypto 2% +$2
tech 2% $0
economics 1% $0
culture 1% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-15.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -0.1% -9.7% 0% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 25 -0.1% -9.6% 8% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 55 -1.9% -11.3% 5% 0% -11.4%
all 133 -6.5% -15.4% 18% 10% -11.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.4% 10% -11.2%
10% -23.5% 10% -19.7%
15% -30.9% 5% -27.4%
20% -37.7% 3% -34.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 33% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
46% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$783) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -10% → late -3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.12 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

156d coverage
Net worth$599
Realized−$1,514
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses24 / 109
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$21
Open positions1
Markets (closed)133 / 134
History coverage156d
Avg bet$628
Trades / day1.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 133 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $599 $599 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 18 $245 $0 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $416 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 18 $261 $0 -0%
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 17 $459 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,280 −$2 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 13 $1,017 −$2 -0%
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 11 $1,848 −$2 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 11 $959 −$1 -0%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 10 $805 −$1 -0%
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 07 $918 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $678 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $915 −$1 -0%
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 03 $2,420 −$4 -0%
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $707 −$1 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $736 −$1 -0%
Will XRP reach $2.00 in May? Jun 02 $260 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $50,000 in May? Jun 02 $452 +$1 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 31 $354 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 27 $1,264 −$2 -0%
Will Kemi Badenoch be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in May 26 $551 −$1 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? May 25 $550 −$1 -0%
Will Joe Kent win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 25 $619 −$1 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 23 $1,042 −$1 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $1,469 −$2 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 22 $617 −$1 -0%
Will Congo DR win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 07 $618 −$1 -0%
Will Hillary Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 06 $1,302 −$2 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 04 $775 −$1 -0%
Will Luxembourg win Eurovision 2026? May 02 $1,043 −$2 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 30 $683 −$1 -0%
LoL: Top Esports vs Ninjas in Pyjamas (BO3) - LPL Group Ascend Apr 30 $1,083 −$1,083 -100%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 21 $6,847 −$7 -0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $1,541 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 13 $3,577 −$4 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 11 $1,524 −$2 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 in March? Apr 02 $63 $0 +0%
Will South Africa win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $1,497 −$2 -0%
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 28 $742 −$1 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $708 −$1 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? Mar 28 $712 −$1 -0%
Will Germany win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $727 −$1 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? Mar 26 $770 −$1 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $760 −$1 -0%
Will Sergio Garcia win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $755 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 25 $775 −$1 -0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 25 $939 −$1 -0%
Will Byeong Hun An win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $783 −$1 -0%
Will Max Homa win the 2026 Masters tournament? Mar 25 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 24 $1,501 −$2 -0%
Will Montenegro win Eurovision 2026? Mar 24 $786 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $244 47h
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $245 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $416 2d
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $416 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $261 2d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $261 2d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $458 3d
Will Jumanji 3 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $459 3d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $599 3d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $823 6d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $824 6d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $1,016 7d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $1,017 7d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $969 8d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $970 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $876 9d
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $877 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $957 9d
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $959 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $804 9d
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $805 10d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $916 13d
Will Clémence Guetté win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $918 13d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $677 14d
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $678 14d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 99¢ $913 16d
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 99¢ $915 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $802 17d
Will Eric Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $804 17d
Will Ivory Coast win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $706 17d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $598.94 · official $598.94 (match) · 396 history records