Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T19:26:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
23 0x23f1…d04c politics 179 markets active 10h ago coverage 149d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL +$1,992 (+1%) realized +$1,992 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR10%break-even
Win rate18%33W / 146L
Whale WR2%big bets
Drawdown27%max
Avg bet$1,452per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$38est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$8
7 days−$29
14 days−$56
30 days−$99
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$143
other 31% +$528
sports 12% +$1,583
culture 4% −$12
economics 3% −$8
world 3% −$4
crypto 0% +$1
tech 0% +$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +10%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 -0.1% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 54 +1.7% -8.0% 9% 4% -9.6%
≤90d 111 +0.4% -9.1% 8% 5% -8.8%
all 179 +3.7% -6.2% 18% 10% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 10% -8.8%
10% -15.2% 10% -17.6%
15% -23.4% 9% -25.5%
20% -30.9% 8% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
45% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 2% (≥$2,022) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +6% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$94 vs −$8 · ×11.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.71 per $1 lost it wins $2.71
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

149d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,992
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses33 / 146
Whale WR (big bets)2%
Est. fees paid−$38
Open positions0
Markets (closed)179 / 179
History coverage149d
Avg bet$1,452
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown27%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 179 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 28 $1,051 −$1 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $4,659 −$4 -0%
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 27 $256 $0 -0%
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 27 $2,239 −$2 -0%
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 26 $3,677 −$4 -0%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 26 $313 $0 -0%
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 25 $1,073 −$1 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 25 $256 $0 -0%
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 23 $2,138 −$3 -0%
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 23 $5,099 −$6 -0%
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 22 $893 −$1 -0%
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 22 $323 $0 -0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 22 $2,942 −$3 -0%
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 21 $224 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 20 $1,772 −$2 -0%
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 18 $1,158 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 18 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 18 $2,311 −$3 -0%
Will Jean Castex win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 17 $876 −$1 -0%
Will Cadillac be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $2,448 −$2 -0%
Will MrBeast win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 16 $5,296 −$7 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 16 $6,139 −$7 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 15 $1,590 −$2 -0%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T? Jun 12 $159 +$2 +1%
Will Nikki Haley win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 12 $741 −$1 -0%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 12 $830 −$1 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $2,771 −$3 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $749 −$1 -0%
Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 10 $679 −$1 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $1,961 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 09 $608 −$1 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 09 $1,891 −$3 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 08 $1,740 −$1 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 08 $806 −$1 -0%
LoL: Movistar KOI vs Karmine Corp (BO5) - LEC Playoffs Jun 07 $57 −$57 -100%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 06 $3,013 −$4 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $8,653 −$10 -0%
San Francisco Giants vs. Milwaukee Brewers Jun 05 $46 +$67 +146%
Will Wicked: For Good be the top grossing movie of 2026? Jun 03 $719 −$1 -0%
Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? Jun 03 $1,885 −$3 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. New York Yankees Jun 03 $65 −$65 -100%
Counter-Strike: Heroic vs Sharks (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 03 $39 +$59 +152%
Will Clémentine Autain win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 02 $895 −$1 -0%
Will Solana reach $100 in May? Jun 02 $252 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,400 in May? Jun 02 $349 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 01 $468 −$1 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $473 −$1 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 01 $446 −$1 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series? May 31 $424 −$1 -0%
Will Laurent Wauquiez win the 2027 French presidential election? May 31 $447 −$1 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $288 10h
Will Sergio Pérez be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $288 11h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $255 32h
Will Cory Booker win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $256 34h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $228 37h
Will Katie Britt win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $228 39h
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $257 2d
Will Oprah Winfrey win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $257 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $313 2d
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $313 2d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $258 3d
Will 8 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $259 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $255 3d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $256 3d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $328 5d
Will Fabien Roussel win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $328 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $393 5d
Will Liz Cheney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $393 5d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $229 6d
Will Kristi Noem win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $230 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $322 6d
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $159 6d
Will Racing Bulls be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $323 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $214 6d
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $214 6d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $224 7d
Will Matt Gaetz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $224 7d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $259 8d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $260 8d
Will Manuel Bompard win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $319 10d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 644 history records