Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T16:19:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23f2…04d4 other 28 markets active 2d ago coverage 22d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$79 (-12%) realized −$79 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate46%13W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit39%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$102
7 days−$79
14 days−$81
30 days−$82
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 59% −$99
sports 31% +$19
world 8% −$1
crypto 1% −$1
politics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 20 +1.2% -8.5% 45% 35% -20.9%
≤30d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 36% -21.0%
≤90d 28 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 36% -21.0%
all 28 -0.3% -9.8% 46% 36% -21.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.8% 36% -21.0%
10% -18.4% 32% -28.6%
15% -26.3% 25% -35.5%
20% -33.5% 25% -41.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 50% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -13% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late -27% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$8 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.29 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$79
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses13 / 15
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions0
Markets (closed)28 / 28
History coverage22d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit39%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 28 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? Jun 16 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -100%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 15 $50 −$1 -3%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 $0 -11%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $51 −$1 -3%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $199 +$6 +3%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $200 +$17 +8%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 $0 -14%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -92%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $1 +$2 +172%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $2 +$1 +55%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 13 $1 $0 +27%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $8 −$1 -8%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +108%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +103%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $1 +$2 +158%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $6 +$1 +19%
Will Iván Cepeda Castro win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian presid Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Iván Cepeda win between 35% and 40% of votes in the first round o Jun 08 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 03 $1 $0 -2%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella place 1st in the Antioquia Department? Jun 03 $1 $0 +28%
Will Iván Cepeda win between 40% and 45% of votes in the first round o Jun 03 $1 +$2 +164%
Will Luis Suárez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $4 −$4 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET May 26 $5 $0 +5%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers May 26 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: France 2 - 0 Senegal? BUY Yes 66¢ $101 43h
Spain leading at halftime? SELL Yes 74¢ $49 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 53¢ $49 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 53¢ $51 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 68¢ $2 3d
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 16¢ $2 3d
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $50 3d
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 97¢ $199 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $217 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 92¢ $200 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? SELL No $1 3d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-14? BUY No $1 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 38¢ $1 4d
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 4d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 99¢ $3 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 57¢ $0 4d
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 58¢ $1 4d
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL Yes 81¢ $1 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 97¢ $7 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes $0 4d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 93¢ $7 4d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $1 5d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $1 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 100¢ $2 5d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $1 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL No 99¢ $2 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 6d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 6d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 48¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 58 history records