Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:35:03+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23f5…7a6e crypto 207 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (467 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$36,918 (+77%) realized +$36,851 · open +$67
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR53%break-even
Win rate56%116W / 90L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown37%max
Avg bet$233per market
Trades / day467.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$215now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$5,014
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (467 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +53%
net ROI/market (all)+4.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 203 +14.7% +3.8% 56% 53% -0.1%
≤30d 206 +15.6% +4.6% 56% 53% -0.2%
≤90d 206 +15.6% +4.6% 56% 53% -0.2%
all 206 +15.6% +4.6% 56% 53% -0.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover467.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +4.6% 53% -0.2%
10% ← realistic here -5.4% 50% -9.8%
15% -14.6% 44% -18.5%
20% -22.9% 35% -26.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +10% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +16% · $-wt +10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +38% → late -7% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
15.9 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$106 · ×1.18 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.52 per $1 lost it wins $1.52
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$215
Realized+$36,851
Unrealized+$67
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses116 / 90
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions1
Markets (closed)206 / 207
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$233
Trades / day467.1
Drawdown37%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 206 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Up 66¢ 96¢ $148 $215 +$67 (+45%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 18 $711 +$177 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 18 $122 +$76 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 18 $117 +$81 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 18 $117 +$81 +69%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 18 $124 +$74 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 18 $106 +$94 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 18 $103 +$95 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 18 $127 +$71 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 18 $137 −$137 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 18 $148 +$213 +143%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:00PM-10:15PM ET Jun 18 $1,657 +$752 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 18 $274 +$3 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 18 $48 −$48 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 18 $95 −$95 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $62 −$12 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 17 $38 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $63 −$63 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 17 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 17 $130 +$45 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 17 $115 −$115 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 17 $154 −$154 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 17 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 17 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 17 $36 −$36 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Jun 17 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $128 +$59 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 17 $18 −$2 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 17 $11 +$18 +164%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Jun 17 $208 +$51 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $113 +$85 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 17 $33 +$21 +64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 17 $183 −$183 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 17 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 17 $165 +$56 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 17 $260 +$159 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 17 $317 −$317 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $145 +$54 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 16 $26 +$5 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 16 $18 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 16 $116 +$91 +78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 16 $93 +$75 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 16 $110 +$88 +80%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 16 $115 +$83 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 16 $113 +$85 +75%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 16 $120 −$120 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $14 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $10 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $3 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $0 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $4 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $80 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 65¢ $3 5m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 39¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 40¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 36¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $11 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $86 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $203 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 55¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $214.57 · official $196.78 · 3500 history records