Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:55:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23f6…5c87 crypto 850 markets active 0h ago coverage 12d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 12d only
✗ bot/MM pace (269 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$400 (-12%) realized −$398 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -44% what you keep after slip
Net edge-44%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate28%260W / 658L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day268.9pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$532
7 days−$545
14 days−$703
30 days−$703
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (269 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-34.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 550 -37.3% -43.3% 22% 21% -44.8%
≤30d 918 -27.5% -34.4% 28% 26% -31.3%
≤90d 918 -27.5% -34.4% 28% 26% -31.3%
all 918 -27.5% -34.4% 28% 26% -31.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover268.9 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -34.4% 26% -31.3%
10% ← realistic here -40.7% 24% -37.8%
15% -46.4% 21% -43.8%
20% -51.7% 19% -49.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -24% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -27% · $-wt -24% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late -51% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$2 · ×1.43 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.57 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$398
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses260 / 658
Open positions1
Markets (closed)918 / 850
History coverage12d ⚠
Avg bet$4
Trades / day268.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 918 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Down 27¢ 4¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-87%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 499 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 15 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 4:55AM-5:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 25, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 30, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -126%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 15 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 27, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 1, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$1 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$4 -114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 21¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET BUY Down 37¢ $1 4m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 16¢ $1 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $4 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $5 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 30¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Down 57¢ $2 9m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 3¢ $1 10m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 25¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 11m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $5 12m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET SELL Up 16¢ $2 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 10¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 18m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 7¢ $1 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 20¢ $3 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET SELL Up 19¢ $3 21m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 8¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $1 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 19¢ $1 23m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 62¢ $1 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $2 24m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 6¢ $1 26m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 29¢ $1 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Down 77¢ $4 27m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $1 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Down 55¢ $2 30m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Down 3¢ $1 31m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.26 · official $1.16 (match) · 3500 history records