Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T19:45:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
23 0x23fa…140b crypto 359 markets active 1h ago coverage 158d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$7,477 (-8%) realized −$7,598 · open +$121
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate46%161W / 189L
Whale WR55%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$267per market
Trades / day13.9pace
Fees−$352est.
Kalshi-fit87%portable
Net worth$2,454now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$6,506
7 days−$6,904
14 days−$6,904
30 days−$7,091
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 50% −$3,646
sports 30% −$5,847
other 10% +$1,857
world 4% −$766
finance 3% −$498
politics 1% −$11
economics 1% −$179
tech 0% +$2
weather 0% −$11
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 46 +17.4% +6.2% 46% 46% -44.0%
≤30d 52 +7.3% -2.9% 42% 40% -43.9%
≤90d 316 -6.6% -15.5% 48% 43% -18.4%
all 350 -7.0% -15.8% 46% 41% -18.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 41% -18.5%
10% -23.9% 37% -26.3%
15% -31.2% 29% -33.4%
20% -38.0% 23% -39.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 10% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
10% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 55% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -4% → late -10% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$124 vs −$155 · ×0.8 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

158d coverage
Net worth$2,454
Realized−$7,598
Unrealized+$121
Win rate (resolved)46%
Wins / losses161 / 189
Whale WR (big bets)55%
Est. fees paid−$352
Open positions6
Markets (closed)350 / 359
History coverage158d
Avg bet$267
Trades / day13.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit87%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 6 History 350 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $1,430 $1,476 +$46 (+3%)
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 Over 48¢ 48¢ $600 $594 −$6 (-1%)
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists Yes 34¢ 44¢ $300 $384 +$84 (+28%)
Will Haiti win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Iraq win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Will Uzbekistan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $406 −$20 -5%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $437 −$430 -98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $457 −$127 -28%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $305 −$203 -66%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $153 +$77 +50%
Iraq vs. Norway: Norway O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $504 +$182 +36%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $255 +$470 +185%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $709 +$571 +80%
Michael Olise: 2+ shots Jun 16 $51 +$172 +335%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $1,100 +$531 +48%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $102 +$88 +86%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $401 +$121 +30%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $24 −$24 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $576 −$576 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,746 −$3,746 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $3,591 −$3,591 -100%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $28 −$3 -12%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $101 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $32 +$84 +263%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $325 −$267 -82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 13 $418 −$418 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 13 $376 −$376 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 13 $209 −$209 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 13 $16 −$16 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 13 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 13 $51 +$28 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 13 $242 −$242 -100%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 1.5 Jun 13 $202 +$101 +50%
United States vs. Paraguay: O/U 0.5 Jun 13 $702 +$75 +11%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $19 −$19 -100%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-14? Jun 12 $305 −$11 -4%
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $24 +$27 +112%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 12 $1,253 −$6 -0%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06- Jun 12 $26 +$71 +279%
Will Korea Republic vs. Czechia end in a draw? AND Will South Africa w Jun 12 $25 +$15 +59%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $189 +$660 +349%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $31 +$57 +185%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 12 $82 +$39 +47%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 AND Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $60 +$41 +69%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $297 +$67 +23%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 11 $53 +$21 +40%
Will Iran win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $1 −$1 -53%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Both Teams to Score Jun 11 $51 −$14 -27%
SpaceX IPO: Closing Share Price Up/Down on First Day? Jun 11 $21 −$2 -9%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 9.5 Total Corners Jun 11 $51 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$16 -100%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? May 31 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 19, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 20 $2 −$2 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-05-19? May 20 $101 −$99 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $102 43m
England vs. Croatia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $508 44m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 48¢ $386 44m
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $406 45m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 3¢ $3 46m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 48m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 10¢ $5 49m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 12¢ $10 50m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $11 50m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $10 51m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 15¢ $17 52m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 25¢ $78 52m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 19¢ $14 53m
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 24¢ $51 55m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 47¢ $152 59m
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 46¢ $251 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 46¢ $102 1h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $102 1h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $307 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $202 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 26¢ $51 1h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $51 4h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 35¢ $51 6h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 36¢ $51 6h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $304 13h
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Portugal O/U 2.5 BUY Over 40¢ $305 13h
Bruno Fernandes: 1+ assists BUY Yes 39¢ $102 13h
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $441 19h
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 46¢ $230 20h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,454.46 · official $2,454.46 (match) · 2448 history records