Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T18:40:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23fb…bdc4 sports 188 markets active 2h ago coverage 174d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate2%4W / 184L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 27% −$3
politics 26% −$3
other 17% −$3
economics 9% −$1
crypto 8% −$1
world 6% −$1
culture 5% −$1
tech 2% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-9.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 -0.0% -9.6% 0% 0% -9.6%
≤30d 3 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.8%
≤90d 4 -0.3% -9.8% 0% 0% -9.7%
all 188 -0.1% -9.6% 2% 0% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.6% 0% -9.7%
10% -18.3% 0% -18.3%
15% -26.2% 0% -26.2%
20% -33.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 68% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -0% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.61 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.02 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

174d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)2%
Wins / losses4 / 184
Open positions0
Markets (closed)188 / 188
History coverage174d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 188 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 27 $31 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $33 $0 -1%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 01 $30 $0 -0%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 18 $160 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? Feb 23 $149 $0 -0%
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? Feb 23 $37 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $16 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? Feb 23 $52 $0 -0%
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $107 $0 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $81 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 23 $32 $0 -0%
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Feb 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will France win Eurovision 2026? Feb 23 $85 $0 -0%
Will 6 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Feb 23 $256 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 23 $311 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $250,000 by December 31, 2026? Feb 23 $266 $0 -0%
Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Feb 23 $192 $0 -0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $115 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? Feb 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $148 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $228 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 23 $175 $0 -0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 23 $57 $0 -0%
Will Trump nominate Kevin Warsh as the next Fed chair? Feb 23 $118 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Feb 23 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Jacksonville Jaguars win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 23 $35 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 20, 2026 (ET)? Feb 23 $80 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bulgaria win Eurovision 2026? Feb 22 $79 $0 -0%
Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? Feb 22 $158 $0 -0%
Will Sarah Knafo win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $46 $0 -0%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Chicago Bears win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $41 $0 -0%
Will the Kansas City Chiefs win the 2027 NFL league championship? Feb 22 $5 $0 -0%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $39 $0 -0%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Feb 22 $179 $0 -0%
Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? Feb 22 $36 $0 -0%
Will Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Feb 22 $120 $0 -0%
Will Dominique de Villepin win the 2027 French presidential election? Feb 22 $38 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? Feb 22 $34 $0 -0%
Will Dortmund win the 2025–26 Champions League? Feb 22 $67 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 22 $207 $0 -0%
Will Hamnet win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards? Feb 22 $156 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 22 $44 $0 -0%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Feb 22 $76 $0 -0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? Feb 22 $90 $0 -0%
US strikes Iran by February 23, 2026? Feb 22 $36 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 95¢ $31 1h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $12 9h
Will Vinicius Junior be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 94¢ $19 9h
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 96¢ $33 12d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $13 12d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 96¢ $20 12d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 97¢ $30 26d
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 97¢ $30 26d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 96¢ $36 40d
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $36 43d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? SELL No 96¢ $31 124d
Will the Toronto Raptors win the NBA Eastern Conference Finals? BUY No 97¢ $31 124d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? SELL No 95¢ $37 124d
Will Xander Schauffele win the 2026 Masters tournament? BUY No 95¢ $37 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 98¢ $16 124d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $16 124d
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 98¢ $16 124d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 97¢ $18 124d
Will the Houston Astros win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 97¢ $34 124d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $30 124d
Will Greta Thunberg win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $30 124d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? SELL No 95¢ $35 124d
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? BUY No 95¢ $35 124d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 97¢ $32 124d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 98¢ $32 124d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 94¢ $36 124d
Will UNRWA win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 124d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $17 124d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 95¢ $19 124d
Will France win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 95¢ $36 124d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 714 history records