Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T13:29:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23fc…89f2 weather 182 markets active 5d ago coverage 693d
TRAPdo not copy weather specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$61 (-8%) realized −$61 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate43%78W / 103L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit97%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$17
14 days+$7
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 62% −$47
weather 14% +$4
crypto 14% −$34
other 10% +$16
world 1% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-19.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 87 +13.8% +3.0% 57% 56% +4.4%
≤30d 118 -13.4% -21.7% 44% 42% -16.4%
≤90d 153 -14.3% -22.5% 42% 41% -36.2%
all 181 -11.0% -19.5% 43% 40% -17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -19.5% 40% -17.8%
10% -27.2% 37% -25.7%
15% -34.2% 30% -32.9%
20% -40.7% 22% -39.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 42% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -30% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -35% → late +12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$3 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

693d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$61
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses78 / 103
Open positions0
Markets (closed)181 / 182
History coverage693d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit97%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 181 Trades
no open positions (45 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? Jun 14 $1 +$5 +500%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 14 $1 +$1 +137%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +286%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? Jun 14 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$9 +857%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 39°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +24%
Will the lowest temperature in Tokyo be 20°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +21%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 78-79°F on Ju Jun 13 $1 $0 +37%
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 72-73°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 24°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 94-95°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Houston be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 92-93°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 78-79°F on June 12? Jun 13 $1 $0 +30%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +84%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 16°C on June 12? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +63%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 26°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$9 +857%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 19°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +56%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 28°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +75%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +51%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 18°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +49%
Will the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +25%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +39%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 12 $1 +$1 +61%
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $1 $0 +43%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 12 $1 $0 +41%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on June 14? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 32°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 14? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 36°C on June 13? BUY No 65¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C or below on June 14? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur be 32°C on June 14? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 80-81°F on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 60¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C on June 13? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 33°C on June 13? BUY Yes 18¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 20°C on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 82-83°F on June 13? BUY No 82¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 76-77°F on Ju BUY Yes 20¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 76-77°F on June BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 72-73°F on Jun BUY Yes 8¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 22°C on June 13? BUY No 69¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 23°C on June 13? BUY No 77¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 13? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 34°C on June 12? BUY No 53¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June BUY Yes 41¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 96-97°F on Ju BUY Yes 29¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 78-79°F on June 13? BUY Yes 25¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seattle be between 84-85°F on June 13? BUY Yes 16¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? BUY No 66¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 74-75°F on Ju BUY Yes 15¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 90-91°F on June 12? BUY No 65¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? BUY No 70¢ $1 5d
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? BUY No 80¢ $1 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 636 history records