Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T12:56:09+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
23 0x23fe…794c politics 98 markets active 1h ago coverage 380d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$14 (-0%) realized −$14 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate10%10W / 87L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$78per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$70now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 36% −$6
other 32% +$1
sports 21% −$3
culture 4% −$1
crypto 3% $0
world 3% $0
economics 2% −$7
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-17.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 3 +0.0% -9.5% 33% 0% -9.6%
all 97 -8.5% -17.2% 10% 1% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.2% 1% -9.7%
10% -25.2% 0% -18.3%
15% -32.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -39.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 87% · top 2 92% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% too few recent
Fragile wins
90% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$0 · ×3.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

380d coverage
Net worth$70
Realized−$14
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)10%
Wins / losses10 / 87
Open positions1
Markets (closed)97 / 98
History coverage380d
Avg bet$78
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 100¢ 100¢ $70 $70 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 20 $211 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? Jun 08 $68 $0 +0%
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 01 $70 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 10 $144 $0 -0%
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Feb 17 $123 $0 -0%
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 31 $71 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 28 $69 $0 -0%
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 27 $71 $0 -0%
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 25 $144 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 24 $229 $0 -0%
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Jan 24 $68 $0 -0%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 22 $1 $0 -14%
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 22 $210 $0 -0%
Will Tunisia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jan 20 $1 −$1 -67%
Will Ajax win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 20 $69 $0 -0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 19 $70 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on January 15? Jan 16 $71 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jan 14 $72 $0 -0%
Will Club Brugge win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jan 12 $143 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January? Jan 09 $71 $0 +0%
Will Stephen Smith win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jan 06 $74 $0 -1%
Will Mallorca win the 2025–26 La Liga? Jan 05 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Wizards win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jan 03 $73 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire in 2025? Jan 01 $53 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 31 $2 −$1 -45%
Will Newcastle win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 29 $68 $0 -0%
Will Eintracht Frankfurt win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 28 $72 $0 -0%
Will the Indiana Pacers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 25 $74 $0 -0%
Will the Indianapolis Colts win Super Bowl 2026? Dec 23 $73 $0 +0%
Will Hunter Biden win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 21 $2 $0 -17%
Will Jake Paul win his boxing match against Anthony Joshua? Dec 20 $66 +$9 +14%
Will José Cardoso win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Dec 18 $66 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from December 9 to December 16, 202 Dec 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $78 $0 -0%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 16 $65 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Dec 14 $68 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2025? Dec 11 $66 $0 -0%
No change in Fed interest rates after December 2025 meeting? Dec 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will Benfica win the 2025–26 Champions League? Dec 09 $74 $0 -0%
Will Barack Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 07 $71 $0 -0%
Will Tottenham win the 2025–26 English Premier League? Dec 06 $1 $0 -50%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Dec 04 $1 $0 -14%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from November 25 to December 2, 202 Dec 03 $74 $0 +0%
Will Gina Raimondo win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Dec 01 $72 $0 -0%
Will Marseille win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 29 $72 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 20 Nov 26 $74 $0 +0%
Will Slavia Pragu win the 2025–26 Champions League? Nov 23 $71 $0 -0%
Will the Washington Commanders win Super Bowl 2026? Nov 21 $73 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Nov 20 $73 $0 -0%
Will Captain America: Brave New World be the top grossing movie of 202 Nov 18 $152 $0 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $70 1h
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $70 13d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 7, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 19d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $70 26d
Will Elaine Culotti win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $70 30d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $68 109d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $68 120d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $70 130d
Will John Thune win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $70 132d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $67 134d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $68 143d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? SELL No 100¢ $71 146d
Will the Memphis Grizzlies win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 100¢ $71 147d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $69 149d
Will Elon Musk win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $69 150d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $71 151d
Will Cape Verde win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $71 152d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $68 152d
Will LeBron James win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $68 153d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $2 154d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? SELL No 100¢ $68 154d
Will Everton win the 2025–26 English Premier League? BUY No 100¢ $68 155d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 155d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $3 156d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $0 156d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? SELL No 100¢ $68 156d
Will Union Saint-Gilloise win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY No 100¢ $68 156d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL Yes 1¢ $1 156d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 157d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $69.89 · official $69.89 (match) · 394 history records