Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T05:00:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x2401…0753
weather · 758 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$426 -5%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$502 · open −$4
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$46
Realized−$502
Unrealized−$4
Win rate (resolved)71%
Wins / losses533 / 216
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions9
Markets (closed)749 / 758
History coverage105d
Avg bet$12
Trades / day17.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%
Chart Positions 9 History 749 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$66
7 days−$81
14 days−$66
30 days−$153
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? No 66¢ 50¢ $10 $8 −$2 (-24%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? No 75¢ 74¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? No 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will Pam Bondi be arrested before 2027? No 97¢ 95¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? No 71¢ 70¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-1%)
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? No 68¢ 66¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-3%)
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? No 77¢ 73¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-5%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? No 74¢ 68¢ $5 $5 −$0 (-8%)
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? No 73¢ 62¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-14%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Jun 14 $76 −$31 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? Jun 14 $10 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? Jun 13 $81 −$30 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$1 -20%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +18%
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? Jun 13 $10 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju Jun 13 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? Jun 13 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 25°C on June 14? Jun 12 $56 −$1 -1%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 90-91°F on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 40°C or higher on June 13? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 21°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -40%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 29°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$2 -37%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 16°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 $0 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 30°C or below on June 13? Jun 12 $5 $0 +9%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 31°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 −$1 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 34°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +28%
Will the highest temperature in Chongqing be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$1 +15%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 26°C on June 12? Jun 12 $5 +$2 +34%
Will the highest temperature in Qingdao be 32°C or higher on June 12? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 86-87°F on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be between 82-83°F on Ju Jun 11 $5 +$1 +12%
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 35°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 +$1 +20%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 31°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 −$2 -39%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $5 $0 -2%
Will the highest temperature in Sao Paulo be 20°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 +$1 +14%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 25°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 $0 +6%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 84-85°F on June 11? Jun 10 $5 $0 -3%
Will the highest temperature in Ankara be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -36%
Will the highest temperature in London be 16°C on June 10? Jun 10 $10 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on June 11? Jun 10 $5 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 18°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$1 -21%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 −$2 -47%
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 15°C on June 10? Jun 10 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 $0 +1%
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 27°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -44%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 23°C on June 10? Jun 09 $5 $0 +10%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 9? Jun 09 $5 −$2 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 10? Jun 08 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in London be 17°C on June 8? Jun 08 $25 −$7 -29%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 23°C on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$5 -34%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 72-73°F on June Jun 08 $30 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 82-83°F on June 8? Jun 08 $20 −$2 -10%
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 78-79°F on June 8? Jun 08 $15 −$1 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 84-85°F on June 8? Jun 08 $5 $0 -7%
Will the highest temperature in Cape Town be 16°C on June 8? Jun 08 $10 −$1 -9%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 22°C on June 8? Jun 08 $4 −$1 -15%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 59% −$347
crypto 22% −$113
other 7% +$13
politics 4% −$87
tech 3% +$6
sports 3% +$10
finance 1% +$7
culture 1% +$3
world 0% +$8
economics 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 84-85°F on June 15? BUY No 75¢ $5 7m
Will the highest temperature in Dallas be between 82-83°F on June 15? BUY No 77¢ $5 1h
Will the highest temperature in London be 22°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $5 2h
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on June 15? BUY No 68¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? SELL No 44¢ $45 3h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 81¢ $10 4h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 29°C on June 15? BUY No 71¢ $5 5h
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 21°C on June 15? BUY No 74¢ $5 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? SELL No 48¢ $51 6h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $5 22h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 59¢ $4 22h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $5 23h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 32°C on June 13? SELL No 87¢ $6 23h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 75¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 77¢ $5 24h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? SELL No 63¢ $10 24h
Will the highest temperature in Moscow be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $5 26h
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 27°C on June 13? SELL No 52¢ $3 26h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in New York City be between 90-91°F on Ju SELL No 70¢ $5 27h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 74¢ $5 28h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 13? SELL No 79¢ $6 28h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 70¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in London be 21°C on June 14? BUY No 64¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY No 73¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Munich be 22°C on June 14? BUY No 66¢ $5 29h
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 30°C on June 14? BUY No 71¢ $5 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -6.8% -15.7% 36% 19% -20.3%
≤30d 194 -15.0% -23.1% 40% 28% -16.6%
≤90d 662 -9.6% -18.2% 70% 19% -14.7%
all 749 -8.2% -16.9% 71% 24% -14.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover17.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 24% -14.5%
10% -24.9% 14% -22.6%
15% -32.2% 10% -30.1%
20% -38.8% 6% -37.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $45.75 · official $45.75 (match) · 2551 history records