Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T11:02:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2403…4a2e crypto 132 markets active 1h ago coverage 74d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,310 (-14%) realized −$1,312 · open +$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate54%68W / 59L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$71per market
Trades / day3.5pace
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days+$4
14 days−$2
30 days−$632
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 93% −$1,389
tech 2% −$63
politics 1% −$2
weather 1% −$18
other 1% +$10
world 1% −$58
finance 1% −$51
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-23.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +1.3% -8.4% 82% 18% -7.5%
≤30d 49 -14.1% -22.3% 67% 16% -34.5%
≤90d 127 -15.2% -23.3% 54% 25% -24.7%
all 127 -15.2% -23.3% 54% 25% -24.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.3% 25% -24.7%
10% -30.6% 18% -31.9%
15% -37.3% 15% -38.5%
20% -43.5% 9% -44.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 17% · top 2 31% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -17% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
51% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -17% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -19% → late -11% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$36 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

74d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$1,312
Unrealized+$2
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses68 / 59
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions5
Markets (closed)127 / 132
History coverage74d
Avg bet$71
Trades / day3.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 127 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? Yes 96¢ 92¢ $41 $39 −$2 (-4%)
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? Yes 90¢ 99¢ $32 $36 +$3 (+10%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 9¢ 15¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+74%)
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 19¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 17¢ 14¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? Jun 24 $31 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? Jun 23 $31 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $30 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? Jun 22 $2 +$1 +67%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +123%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? Jun 21 $29 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? Jun 20 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? Jun 19 $29 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? Jun 18 $28 +$1 +2%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? Jun 17 $27 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $26 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? Jun 16 $5 −$4 -71%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $12 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $42 −$11 -26%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? Jun 15 $19 $0 -1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $11 +$1 +8%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? Jun 14 $41 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 13? Jun 13 $41 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $10 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $10 +$5 +47%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 12? Jun 13 $15 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 11? Jun 11 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $35 $0 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $56,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 9? Jun 09 $33 +$1 +4%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 8? Jun 08 $29 +$5 +16%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 7? Jun 07 $27 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $20 +$3 +14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 5? Jun 06 $4 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 5, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 05 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $15 −$11 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 5? Jun 05 $15 +$4 +28%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $13 +$1 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $10 +$7 +69%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $10 +$1 +10%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $12 +$1 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 1? Jun 01 $102 −$96 -94%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 31? Jun 01 $52 −$52 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 30? May 31 $102 −$102 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $103 −$103 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 28? May 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 28? May 28 $102 −$102 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 May 25-31? May 27 $31 +$13 +44%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 27? May 27 $353 −$132 -37%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 26? May 26 $85 +$7 +9%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 26? May 26 $506 +$24 +5%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 25? May 25 $29 +$5 +16%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 96¢ $41 1h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $58,000 on June 25? BUY Yes 90¢ $33 18h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on June 24? BUY Yes 95¢ $31 42h
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 97¢ $31 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 23? BUY Yes 73¢ $3 2d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 95¢ $30 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 22? BUY Yes 58¢ $2 3d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 97¢ $29 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 21? BUY Yes 43¢ $1 4d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 20? BUY Yes 92¢ $11 5d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 19? BUY No 98¢ $29 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 18? BUY Yes 97¢ $28 7d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 95¢ $27 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 17? BUY Yes 64¢ $2 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? SELL No 19¢ $2 8d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 16? BUY No 95¢ $26 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 16? BUY No 59¢ $5 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 98¢ $19 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL No 3¢ $0 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 97¢ $19 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? SELL No 98¢ $19 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? SELL Yes 75¢ $12 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY No 60¢ $12 10d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 15? BUY No 98¢ $19 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 15? BUY Yes 68¢ $11 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $64,000 on June 14? BUY Yes 92¢ $11 11d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on June 14? SELL Yes 100¢ $42 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.39 · official $78.39 (match) · 358 history records