Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T03:42:42+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
24 0x2405…427b sports 83 markets active 0h ago coverage 16d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$11 (+1%) realized +$10 · open +$1
Gross ROI / mkt -17% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR47%break-even
Win rate51%41W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$11per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Fees−$6est.
Kalshi-fit76%portable
Net worth$11now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$13
14 days+$28
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 62% +$42
other 38% −$26
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +47%
net ROI/market (all)-24.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 -14.1% -22.2% 54% 46% -7.0%
≤30d 81 -16.7% -24.6% 51% 47% -8.0%
≤90d 81 -16.7% -24.6% 51% 47% -8.0%
all 81 -16.7% -24.6% 51% 47% -8.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -24.6% 47% -8.0%
10% -31.8% 36% -16.8%
15% -38.4% 27% -24.8%
20% -44.4% 21% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -17% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$4 · ×1.07 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×1.1 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

16d coverage
Net worth$11
Realized+$10
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)51%
Wins / losses41 / 40
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions2
Markets (closed)81 / 83
History coverage16d
Avg bet$11
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit76%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Yes 50¢ 72¢ $6 $9 +$3 (+45%)
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Yes 28¢ 14¢ $4 $2 −$2 (-48%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 23 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 +$4 +9%
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? Jun 28 $10 +$6 +60%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $2 +$2 +97%
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $10 −$5 -53%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $3 −$3 -99%
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 Jun 27 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? Jun 27 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 27 $4 −$4 -98%
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 Jun 26 $5 +$8 +152%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 26 $1 −$1 -98%
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 26 $5 +$8 +167%
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 Jun 26 $30 +$9 +29%
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 Jun 25 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $15 +$4 +28%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$5 +52%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $10 +$3 +32%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 Jun 25 $65 +$9 +14%
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 Jun 24 $30 +$16 +52%
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 Jun 24 $8 −$3 -37%
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Jun 23 $1 $0 +41%
England vs. Ghana: Draw at halftime? Jun 23 $5 +$2 +40%
Portugal vs. Uzbekistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $100 +$6 +6%
France vs. Iraq: O/U 2.5 Jun 23 $50 +$9 +18%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $40 −$40 -99%
Will Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire end in a draw? Jun 20 $20 −$20 -99%
Côte d'Ivoire leading at halftime? Jun 20 $75 +$4 +5%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Draw at halftime? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 5.5 Jun 20 $5 +$2 +31%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $30 +$5 +17%
Scotland vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $40 +$7 +18%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +70%
United States leading at halftime? Jun 19 $30 +$4 +14%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $50 +$10 +20%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 6.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $5 −$5 -96%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 19 $3 −$2 -66%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 19 $4 −$1 -14%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 0.5 Jun 19 $1 $0 +18%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 +$2 +79%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$1 -16%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 −$2 -80%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 17 $7 −$6 -81%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1 $0 +23%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +65%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $2 +$1 +57%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +48%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 95¢ $55 18m
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 28¢ $4 37m
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 50¢ $7 37m
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 87¢ $50 1h
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 2h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? SELL Yes 48¢ $16 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 SELL Under 33¢ $4 2h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 16¢ $2 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $5 3h
Will Colombia vs. Portugal end in a draw? BUY Yes 29¢ $10 3h
Colombia vs. Portugal: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 55¢ $10 4h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $3 4h
Panama vs. England: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $3 5h
Will Panama vs. England end in a draw? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6h
Will Croatia vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $4 6h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 33¢ $1 31h
Norway vs. France: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 39¢ $5 32h
Türkiye vs. United States: O/U 5.5 BUY Over 33¢ $5 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 2d
Will Japan vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 37¢ $5 2d
Japan vs. Sweden: O/U 0.5 BUY Under 21¢ $2 2d
Tunisia vs. Netherlands: O/U 5.5 BUY Under 77¢ $30 2d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 78¢ $15 2d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 88¢ $65 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 40¢ $5 3d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 75¢ $10 3d
Scotland vs. Brazil: O/U 1.5 AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-24? BUY 65¢ $10 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 59¢ $3 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 45¢ $5 3d
Switzerland vs. Canada: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 65¢ $30 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $11.24 · official $11.24 (match) · 160 history records