Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:32:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x2407…7dca
crypto · 306 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$1,355 -6%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$1,340 · open −$14
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist
Chart Positions 19 History 287 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$292
7 days+$245
14 days+$245
30 days+$156
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners Under 67¢ 69¢ $300 $311 +$11 (+4%)
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? No 64¢ 64¢ $300 $304 +$4 (+1%)
Netanyahu out by end of 2026? No 51¢ 44¢ $303 $264 −$39 (-13%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score No 55¢ 55¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $132 +$32 (+32%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Morocco 68¢ 68¢ $123 $122 −$1 (-1%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $130 $117 −$13 (-10%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $100 $98 −$2 (-2%)
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Yes 50¢ 48¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $49 $60 +$11 (+21%)
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $51 +$1 (+3%)
Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $50 −$0 (-1%)
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $47 −$3 (-6%)
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes $50 $41 −$9 (-18%)
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Under 58¢ 57¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Yes 28¢ 28¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? Yes 21¢ 20¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-2%)
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? Yes $10 $10 +$0 (+0%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Up 29¢ $8 $0 −$8 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Up $4 $0 −$4 (-100%)
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Yes 13¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Knicks vs. Warriors: O/U 231.5 Under 61¢ $415 $0 −$415 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 21, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Up 51¢ $30 $0 −$30 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Up 52¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $51 +$46 +91%
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 Jun 12 $323 +$130 +40%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? Jun 11 $20 +$91 +442%
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 11 $94 +$61 +66%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $153 −$6 -4%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -97%
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? Jun 11 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $102 −$10 -10%
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? Jun 09 $21 −$20 -98%
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? Jun 09 $20 −$20 -98%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $7 −$7 -98%
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $30 +$9 +29%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $5 +$2 +46%
Dota 2: Team Liquid vs Xtreme Gaming (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 26 $47 +$34 +73%
Counter-Strike: Rebels Gaming vs ASTRAL (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Gr May 26 $29 +$14 +48%
Counter-Strike: ENCE vs CYBERSHOKE Prospects (BO3) - European Pro Leag May 26 $20 −$20 -99%
Centurion: Calvin Hemery vs Khololwam Montsi May 26 $40 +$9 +23%
Kosice: Dali Blanch vs Carlo Alberto Caniato May 26 $10 −$10 -98%
Game Handicap: HLE (-1.5) vs Dplus KIA (+1.5) May 26 $20 −$14 -71%
Hurricanes vs. Canadiens May 26 $30 +$22 +73%
Knicks vs. Cavaliers: O/U 207.5 May 26 $68 +$21 +31%
Games Total: O/U 2.5 May 25 $51 +$17 +34%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Movistar KOI (BO5) - LEC Playoffs May 25 $67 −$16 -23%
Roland Garros ATP: Ignacio Buse vs Andrey Rublev May 25 $59 +$7 +12%
Counter-Strike: Phantom vs Brute (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 2 Group Sta May 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Vicenza: Tristan Boyer vs Miguel Damas May 25 $31 −$4 -13%
Counter-Strike: ex-RUBY vs Ursa (BO3) - BC Game Masters Europe Series May 25 $20 +$23 +113%
Roland Garros WTA: Elina Svitolina vs Anna Bondar May 25 $47 −$43 -92%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in May? May 25 $41 −$40 -97%
Counter-Strike: Lavked vs Phantom (BO3) - CCT Europe Series 3 Group St May 25 $115 +$99 +86%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $2 −$2 -98%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 19 $81 −$80 -99%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $30 +$12 +41%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 0 weeks? May 19 $31 −$30 -97%
Will ICEMAN be No.1 for 1 week? May 19 $31 +$8 +26%
Valorant: Beşiktaş Esports vs NAVI Junior (BO3) - VCL EMEA: Group A May 18 $63 −$62 -99%
Cavaliers vs. Pistons May 18 $38 +$55 +146%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO3) - PGL Astana Playoffs May 15 $417 −$53 -13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Mar 05 $10 −$10 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Mar 05 $399 −$396 -99%
US x Iran ceasefire by May 31? Mar 05 $430 −$21 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Mar 05 $15 +$16 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 05 $24 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Mar 05 $36 −$6 -17%
US x Iran ceasefire by March 15? Mar 05 $467 +$60 +13%
LoL: JD Gaming vs Bilibili Gaming (BO5) - LPL Playoffs Mar 04 $81 −$81 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers Mar 04 $29 −$29 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Mar 04 $20 +$9 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Mar 04 $64 −$19 -30%
Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz by March 31? Mar 04 $50 −$5 -10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 33% −$595
crypto 30% −$445
world 17% +$257
other 9% +$19
politics 9% −$432
tech 1% +$4
culture 1% −$124
finance 0% −$40
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) BUY Morocco 68¢ $124 1h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY No 55¢ $203 1h
United States vs. Paraguay: 2nd Half O/U 5.5 Total Corners BUY Under 67¢ $303 5h
Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 58¢ $30 5h
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $20 5h
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 21¢ $20 5h
Exact Score: Canada 0 - 1 Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes $10 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $97 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $452 6h
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $323 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $0 13h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 2 Czechia? BUY Yes $10 13h
Exact Score: Korea Republic 1 - 1 Czechia? BUY Yes 18¢ $10 13h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 31¢ $92 13h
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 37¢ $147 13h
Mexico vs. South Africa: Mexico 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 60¢ $94 25h
OpenAI $1t+ IPO before 2027? BUY No 64¢ $304 40h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $31 45h
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $103 2d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 1 South Africa? BUY Yes 13¢ $21 3d
Korea Republic vs. Czechia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 51¢ $51 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 2 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 3d
Exact Score: Mexico 1 - 0 South Africa? BUY Yes 19¢ $20 3d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 3d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 37¢ $102 3d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 35¢ $7 3d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage SELL Team Falcons 99¢ $39 16d
Dota 2: Team Falcons vs OG (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Falcons 76¢ $30 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-17.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 +11.4% +0.8% 36% 36% +17.9%
≤30d 38 -2.9% -12.2% 47% 47% -3.3%
≤90d 38 -2.9% -12.2% 47% 47% -3.3%
all 287 -8.6% -17.3% 41% 39% -16.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.3% 39% -16.5%
10% -25.2% 37% -24.4%
15% -32.4% 32% -31.7%
20% -39.0% 27% -38.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,071.00 · official $2,071.04 (match) · 810 history records