Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T16:51:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x2409…215e crypto 1582 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,472 (-5%) realized −$1,291 · open −$181
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate60%949W / 629L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$17per market
Trades / day37.4pace
Fees−$323est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$719now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$267
7 days+$235
14 days+$235
30 days+$1,432
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 79% +$677
crypto 21% −$332
other 0% −$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 -4.8% -13.9% 55% 55% -2.5%
≤30d 109 +10.7% +0.1% 58% 56% -1.2%
≤90d 1578 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 55% -7.7%
all 1578 -4.5% -13.6% 60% 55% -7.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover37.4 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 55% -7.7%
10% ← realistic here -21.9% 49% -16.5%
15% -29.4% 33% -24.6%
20% -36.3% 22% -32.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
7% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt +2% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$8 vs −$12 · ×0.71 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.07 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$719
Realized−$1,291
Unrealized−$181
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses949 / 629
Est. fees paid−$323
Open positions4
Markets (closed)1578 / 1582
History coverage54d ⚠
Avg bet$17
Trades / day37.4
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 1578 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Lilli Tagger Lanlana Tararudee 47¢ 76¢ $200 $322 +$122 (+61%)
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova Peyton Stearns 34¢ 34¢ $200 $200 −$0 (-0%)
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng Qinwen Zheng 41¢ 40¢ $200 $198 −$2 (-1%)
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel Hanne Vandewinkel 64¢ 0¢ $300 $0 −$300 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Darja Semenistaja Jun 29 $356 −$247 -69%
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart Jun 29 $151 +$72 +48%
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska Jun 29 $203 +$232 +114%
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto Jun 29 $215 −$12 -6%
Wimbledon WTA: Jaqueline Cristian vs Iva Jovic Jun 29 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng Jun 29 $101 −$101 -100%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P Jun 28 $201 +$51 +26%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Elena Micic Jun 28 $101 +$23 +23%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 28 $101 +$22 +22%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Zizou Bergs vs Ugo Humbert Jun 28 $101 −$101 -100%
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Jun 28 $133 −$30 -22%
Dota 2: Carstensz vs Mentality Monster (BO3) - EPL World Series Southe Jun 28 $151 +$64 +42%
ITF Taipei: Sakura Hosogi vs Priska Madelyn Nugroho Jun 28 $199 −$118 -59%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Amandine Hesse Jun 27 $51 +$29 +57%
Dota 2: Natus Vincere vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Clo Jun 27 $51 −$51 -100%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Alejandro Davidovich Fokina Jun 27 $152 +$146 +96%
ITF Rome: Amelia Honer vs Sahaja Yamalapalli Jun 27 $152 +$97 +64%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Madison Keys Jun 27 $82 −$82 -100%
ITF Gdansk: Weronika Ewald vs Gina Feistel Jun 27 $101 −$7 -7%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Ayla Aksu vs Anna Kubareva Jun 26 $200 +$78 +39%
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Han Shi Jun 26 $301 +$251 +83%
Dota 2: Power Rangers vs Team Bald (BO3) - The International Europe Cl Jun 26 $50 +$20 +40%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Donna Vekic Jun 12 $203 −$107 -53%
Stuttgart Open: Sho Shimabukuro vs Nick Kyrgios Jun 11 $181 −$181 -100%
ITF Guimaraes: Savannah Broadus vs Yeon Woo Ku Jun 11 $202 −$202 -100%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $202 −$202 -100%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $203 −$203 -100%
ITF Zagreb: Dalila Jakupovic vs Amarissa Kiara Toth Jun 11 $242 +$141 +58%
Libema Open: Magda Linette vs Mia Pohankova Jun 11 $47 −$5 -10%
Lyon: Daniel Rincon vs Dali Blanch Jun 11 $101 +$68 +67%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 11 $102 −$57 -56%
ITF Wuning: Kyoka Okamura vs Varvara Panshina Jun 11 $236 +$305 +129%
ITF Wuning: Daria Khomutsianskaya vs Sara Saito Jun 11 $51 −$33 -65%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 10 $101 +$36 +36%
Libema Open: Anastasia Potapova vs Suzan Lamens Jun 10 $59 +$62 +105%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Alexandra Eala Jun 10 $202 +$120 +59%
HSBC Championships: Marie Bouzkova vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 09 $101 +$44 +44%
HSBC Championships: Maria Sakkari vs Tatjana Maria Jun 09 $96 +$86 +90%
Libema Open: Gabriel Diallo vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 09 $102 −$102 -100%
HSBC Championships: Laura Siegemund vs Francesca Jones Jun 09 $303 +$130 +43%
Ilkley: Elvina Kalieva vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 09 $82 −$56 -68%
Ilkley: Veronika Podrez vs Tatiana Prozorova Jun 08 $2 −$2 -100%
Ilkley: Darja Vidmanova vs Linda Fruhvirtova Jun 08 $102 −$1 -1%
Libema Open: Mia Pohankova vs Clara Tauson Jun 08 $102 +$116 +114%
Modena: Xiyu Wang vs Laura Samson Jun 08 $101 −$101 -100%
Stuttgart Open: Alejandro Davidovich Fokina vs Mattia Bellucci Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Birmingham: Alexandra Eala vs Nikola Bartunkova Jun 08 $102 −$102 -100%
Stuttgart Open, Qualification: Roman Safiullin vs Alexis Galarneau Jun 08 $51 −$51 -100%
Libema Open, Qualification: Katie Volynets vs Lin Zhu Jun 07 $101 +$60 +59%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Priscilla Hon vs Polina Kudermetova Jun 07 $51 +$29 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Peyton Stearns 35¢ $102 7m
Wimbledon WTA: Peyton Stearns vs Nikola Bartunkova BUY Peyton Stearns 34¢ $102 9m
Wimbledon WTA: Katerina Siniakova vs Qinwen Zheng BUY Qinwen Zheng 41¢ $204 15m
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 60¢ $101 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Claire Liu vs Hanne Vandewinkel BUY Hanne Vandewinkel 67¢ $202 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Lanlana Tararudee vs Lilli Tagger BUY Lanlana Tararudee 47¢ $203 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Darja Semenistaja SELL Darja Semenistaja 4¢ $12 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart SELL Jelena Ostapenko 100¢ $224 1h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 52¢ $81 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 44¢ $71 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Jelena Ostapenko vs Harriet Dart BUY Jelena Ostapenko 67¢ $151 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Darja Semenistaja SELL Darja Semenistaja 17¢ $94 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Darja Semenistaja SELL Darja Semenistaja 14¢ $3 2h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Darja Semenistaja BUY Darja Semenistaja 34¢ $204 3h
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto SELL Xinyu Wang 62¢ $4 4h
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Elisabetta Cocciaretto 40¢ $13 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto SELL Xinyu Wang 59¢ $198 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Xinyu Wang vs Elisabetta Cocciaretto BUY Xinyu Wang 58¢ $203 5h
Wimbledon WTA: Jaqueline Cristian vs Iva Jovic BUY Jaqueline Cristian 20¢ $102 7h
Wimbledon WTA: Mananchaya Sawangkaew vs Maja Chwalinska BUY Mananchaya Sawangkaew 46¢ $203 7h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P SELL Inner Circle Esports 100¢ $253 18h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Elena Micic SELL Eva Vedder 100¢ $123 19h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 79¢ $101 19h
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Acend (BO5) - Super DraculaN P BUY Inner Circle Esports 79¢ $101 19h
ITF Palma Del Rio: Eva Vedder vs Elena Micic BUY Eva Vedder 81¢ $101 20h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group SELL 4ikibamboni 81¢ $123 22h
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Nemiga Gaming (BO3) - European Pro League Group BUY 4ikibamboni 66¢ $101 23h
Counter-Strike: Atreides vs Donstu Esports (BO3) - CCT Europe Challeng BUY Donstu Esports 51¢ $101 26h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed SELL Virtus.pro 61¢ $103 27h
Dota 2: Virtus.pro vs HULIGANI (BO3) - The International Europe Closed BUY Virtus.pro 64¢ $25 28h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $719.29 · official $719.34 (match) · 3500 history records