Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T03:19:34+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x240a…ce0c sports 10 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$4 (-4%) realized −$4 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -22% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -35% what you keep after slip
Net edge-35%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate43%3W / 4L
Drawdown64%max
Avg bet$10per market
Trades / day13.0pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit50%portable
Net worth$15now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$21
sports 46% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-29.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -22.2% -29.6% 43% 43% +1.3%
≤30d 7 -22.2% -29.6% 43% 43% +1.3%
≤90d 7 -22.2% -29.6% 43% 43% +1.3%
all 7 -22.2% -29.6% 43% 43% +1.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.0 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -29.6% 43% +1.3%
10% -36.3% 43% -8.4%
15% -42.5% 43% -17.2%
20% -48.1% 29% -25.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 51% · top 2 76% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +12% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -22% · $-wt +12% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$7 · ×1.77 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.33 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$15
Realized−$4
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses3 / 4
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)7 / 10
History coverage1d
Avg bet$10
Trades / day13.0
Drawdown64%
Kalshi-fit50%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 7 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 69¢ $11 $11 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Japan 42¢ 42¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador leading at halftime? Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
O/U 1.5 Rounds Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Manel Kape win by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $18 +$18 +101%
Will Navajo Stirling win by KO or TKO? Jun 21 $9 +$9 +101%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $20 +$9 +43%
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims Jun 21 $6 −$6 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Japan 42¢ $4 26m
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $11 26m
Will Manel Kape win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $36 55m
Will Manel Kape win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 49¢ $18 1h
Will Navajo Stirling win by KO or TKO? SELL Yes 100¢ $18 1h
Will Navajo Stirling win by KO or TKO? BUY Yes 49¢ $9 1h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma SELL Christian Rodriguez 100¢ $29 2h
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma BUY Christian Rodriguez 69¢ $20 2h
O/U 1.5 Rounds BUY Over 59¢ $10 2h
UFC Fight Night: Andre Fili vs. Vinicius Oliveira (Featherweight, Main BUY Andre Fili 30¢ $5 3h
Ecuador leading at halftime? BUY Yes 66¢ $6 4h
UFC Fight Night: Allan Nascimento vs. Mitch Raposo (Flyweight, Prelims BUY Allan Nascimento 61¢ $6 4h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? AND Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY 57¢ $9 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $14.87 · official $14.87 (match) · 19 history records