Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:49:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
24 0x240b…c32a sports 237 markets active 1h ago coverage 589d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable sports specialistP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$3,609 (-6%) realized −$3,610 · open +$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -14% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate59%136W / 95L
Whale WR74%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$266per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Fees−$495est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$123now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 589d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 91% −$1,556
crypto 4% +$343
politics 3% +$118
other 1% −$122
world 0% −$2
tech 0% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-22.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 73 -31.6% -38.1% 49% 37% -10.6%
≤30d 138 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 39% -10.3%
≤90d 138 -23.8% -31.1% 50% 39% -10.3%
all 231 -13.9% -22.1% 59% 43% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.1% 43% -9.7%
10% -29.5% 28% -18.3%
15% -36.3% 23% -26.2%
20% -42.6% 16% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 13% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
27% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -14% · $-wt -2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 74% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late -25% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$48 vs −$82 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

589d coverage
Net worth$123
Realized−$3,610
Unrealized+$1
Win rate (resolved)59%
Wins / losses136 / 95
Whale WR (big bets)74%
Est. fees paid−$495
Open positions5
Markets (closed)231 / 237
History coverage589d
Avg bet$266
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 231 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Resilience 98¢ 100¢ $100 $102 +$2 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Stage illwill 37¢ 40¢ $13 $14 +$1 (+7%)
Will Team Spirit win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 36¢ 28¢ $5 $4 −$1 (-24%)
Will Vitality win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Yes 39¢ 38¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-1%)
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro League Series 7 Playoffs Sashi Esport 85¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+18%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 58 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 15 $201 +$98 +49%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 15 $20 +$6 +30%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 15 $40 +$60 +150%
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +106%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Jun 15 $720 +$323 +45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +4%
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta Jun 15 $2 −$2 -98%
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series Jun 15 $6 −$2 -40%
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $51 −$50 -99%
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Jun 14 $5 +$1 +21%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $43 −$2 -5%
LoL: LYON vs Team Liquid (BO5) - LCS Playoffs Jun 14 $5 −$5 -98%
Counter-Strike: Festina Lente vs Iowa Stormboar (BO3) - NSTLGA League Jun 14 $5 −$5 -99%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $2 $0 +8%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers (BO3) - European Pro League Group Jun 14 $594 −$500 -84%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $1,305 +$171 +13%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs Vitality (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Sta Jun 14 $39 +$2 +5%
Dota 2: 4ikibamboni vs Power Rangers - Game 1 Winner Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 14 $3,110 −$98 -3%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 2 Winner Jun 14 $4,062 −$50 -1%
Counter-Strike: MOUZ vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 14 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: illwill vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Gro Jun 14 $102 −$100 -98%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs 9z - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,703 −$1,419 -83%
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FURIA - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $1,753 −$50 -3%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs MOUZ - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $36 +$17 +48%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $1,406 +$239 +17%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs Monte (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage Jun 13 $1,107 +$302 +27%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 13 $2,076 −$956 -46%
Counter-Strike: B8 vs FUT Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 13 $610 −$522 -86%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons (BO3) - NSTLGA League Playo Jun 13 $414 +$86 +21%
Counter-Strike: F5 Esports vs Wanted Goons - Map 2 Winner Jun 13 $202 +$128 +63%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $2,503 +$103 +4%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 +$8 +16%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs 9z - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs Spirit - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $1,028 −$20 -2%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Legacy - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,002 +$58 +3%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $244 +$156 +64%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BetBoom Team - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $403 −$400 -99%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 2 Winner Jun 12 $203 +$155 +76%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $51 −$50 -98%
Counter-Strike: FUT Esports vs G2 - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $20 −$20 -98%
Counter-Strike: PARIVISION vs Monte - Map 1 Winner Jun 12 $2,007 +$125 +6%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs MOUZ (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 Jun 12 $1,103 +$116 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 28¢ $3 45m
Counter-Strike: illwill vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group BUY illwill 41¢ $10 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 98¢ $100 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin SELL Team Resilience 93¢ $402 1h
Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Team Resilience (BO3) - The International Chin BUY Team Resilience 92¢ $401 1h
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs HyperSpirit (BO3) - European Pro Leagu BUY Sashi Esport 85¢ $1 3h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY G2 50¢ $100 16h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner SELL Natus Vincere 100¢ $100 17h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 2 Winner BUY G2 77¢ $20 18h
Will FURIA win IEM Cologne Major 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $2 18h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $27 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 - Map 1 Winner BUY Natus Vincere 40¢ $13 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major SELL BetBoom Team 100¢ $1,043 19h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 SELL Natus Vincere 65¢ $99 19h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 70¢ $700 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET BUY Down 41¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $1 23h
Counter-Strike: Bebop vs RUSTEC (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Sta BUY RUSTEC 43¢ $2 25h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? AND Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? AND BUY 40¢ $1 25h
Counter-Strike: TDK vs Young Ninjas (BO3) - European Pro League Series BUY TDK 83¢ $6 29h
Counter-Strike: BetBoom Team vs FUT Esports (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major BUY BetBoom Team 45¢ $20 29h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY Natus Vincere 65¢ $101 29h
Counter-Strike: 9z vs TheMongolz (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 BUY TheMongolz 60¢ $51 37h
Dota 2: Roar Gaming vs Team Refuser (BO3) - The International China Cl BUY Team Refuser 71¢ $5 39h
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds BUY Arizona Diamondbacks 82¢ $5 39h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 41¢ $5 39h
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo BUY Natus Vincere 21¢ $2 40h
Overwatch: Virtus.pro vs Geekay Esports (BO3) - OCS EMEA Stage 2 Group BUY Virtus.pro 82¢ $5 40h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $123.40 · official $123.40 (match) · 520 history records