Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T21:30:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x240d…1ff2 sports 93 markets active 1h ago coverage 592d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,975 (-11%) realized −$1,949 · open −$26
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -26% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -33% what you keep after slip
Net edge-33%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate38%35W / 56L
Whale WR57%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$198per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$173now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$454
7 days+$454
14 days+$454
30 days+$454
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 60% −$2,432
crypto 19% −$90
other 14% +$174
politics 4% +$358
world 4% +$85
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-33.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 13 +31.7% +19.2% 69% 69% +19.6%
≤30d 13 +31.7% +19.2% 69% 69% +19.6%
≤90d 38 -44.1% -49.4% 29% 29% -44.5%
all 91 -26.0% -33.1% 38% 34% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -33.1% 34% -18.9%
10% -39.5% 29% -26.6%
15% -45.3% 22% -33.7%
20% -50.7% 15% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 21% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -39% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
11% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -26% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 57% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -9% → late -43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$93 vs −$94 · ×1.0 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

592d coverage
Net worth$173
Realized−$1,949
Unrealized−$26
Win rate (resolved)38%
Wins / losses35 / 56
Whale WR (big bets)57%
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions2
Markets (closed)91 / 93
History coverage592d
Avg bet$198
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 91 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 60¢ 68¢ $99 $111 +$12 (+12%)
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? Yes 46¢ 28¢ $100 $62 −$38 (-38%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 6 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 +$100 +100%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $101 −$100 -99%
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? Jun 18 $202 +$80 +40%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $100 −$65 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $103 −$65 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 18 $102 +$41 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 18 $101 +$25 +25%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $100 +$150 +150%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $100 +$100 +100%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $101 +$87 +86%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 −$22 -22%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $101 +$75 +74%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $98 +$47 +48%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R May 13 $47 −$46 -98%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad May 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians May 10 $50 −$13 -27%
Indian Premier League: Chennai Super Kings vs Lucknow Super Giants May 10 $51 −$50 -98%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Kolkata Knight Riders May 09 $51 +$63 +124%
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Hyderabad Kingsmen Mar 29 $170 −$170 -100%
ODI Series New Zealand vs South Africa Women: New Zealand vs South Afr Mar 29 $796 −$796 -100%
US forces enter Iran by March 31? Mar 29 $711 +$85 +12%
Pakistan Super League: Quetta Gladiators vs Karachi Kings Mar 28 $765 −$743 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 22, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Mar 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Manchester City FC win on 2026-01-01? Mar 27 $24 −$24 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on November 30? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Leeds United FC win on 2026-02-21? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $92,000 on November 30? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-01-01? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on December 1? Mar 27 $2 −$2 -100%
T20 World Cup: India vs Netherlands (Game 1) Mar 27 $11 −$11 -100%
Will Pisa SC vs. Bologna FC 1909 end in a draw? Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $116,000 on October 10? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on December 1? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
T20 Asia Cup Rising Stars, Women: Bangladesh A vs India A Mar 27 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on December 1? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,100 on November 30? Mar 27 $20 −$20 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $3,200 on November 30? Mar 27 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $94,000 on November 29? Mar 27 $10 −$10 -100%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 15 $60 −$44 -73%
National Cricket League, Women: Western Australia vs ACT Meteors Mar 15 $10 +$4 +38%
T20 Series New Zealand vs South Africa: New Zealand vs South Africa Mar 15 $600 +$128 +21%
ODI Series Bangladesh vs Pakistan: Bangladesh vs Pakistan Mar 14 $112 +$29 +26%
National Cricket League, Women: South Australian Scorpions vs New Sout Mar 14 $100 −$100 -100%
T20 Series Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka: Afghanistan vs Sri Lanka Mar 14 $100 $0 -0%
T20 World Cup: West Indies vs South Africa Mar 13 $100 −$100 -100%
Over $1.3B committed to the MegaETH public sale? Mar 13 $10 −$10 -100%
T20 World Cup: England vs India Mar 05 $110 +$9 +8%
Will Bologna FC 1909 win on 2026-03-02? Mar 03 $99 +$6 +6%
T20 World Cup: Zimbabwe vs South Africa Mar 02 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Daejeon Hana Citizen FC vs. FC Anyang end in a draw? Mar 02 $107 +$22 +20%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 64¢ $101 45m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $1 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $76 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $12 1h
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $52 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 60¢ $46 1h
Will Czechia vs. South Africa end in a draw? BUY Yes 71¢ $202 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 18¢ $35 3h
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET SELL Down 24¢ $37 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 61¢ $103 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $102 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 79¢ $101 6h
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in June? BUY Yes 46¢ $100 12h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $100 23h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 50¢ $100 24h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 53¢ $101 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 39¢ $80 26h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 48¢ $102 26h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 67¢ $98 2d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? AND Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY 57¢ $101 2d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Kolkata Knight R BUY Kolkata Knight Riders 25¢ $47 36d
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Sunrisers Hyderabad BUY Sunrisers Hyderabad 50¢ $50 37d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians SELL Mumbai Indians 30¢ $37 39d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 40¢ $6 39d
Indian Premier League: Royal Challengers Bangalore vs Mumbai Indians BUY Mumbai Indians 40¢ $15 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $173.48 · official $173.50 (match) · 298 history records