Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T00:27:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x240f…2d7d other 17 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$8 (-0%) realized +$94 · open −$102
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate44%7W / 9L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$401per market
Trades / day7.0pace
Fees−$18est.
Kalshi-fit35%portable
Net worth$206now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% −$1,127
sports 17% +$432
crypto 4% +$180
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 44% -15.3%
≤30d 16 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 44% -15.3%
≤90d 16 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 44% -15.3%
all 16 +1.1% -8.5% 44% 44% -15.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 44% -15.3%
10% -17.3% 44% -23.4%
15% -25.3% 38% -30.8%
20% -32.6% 31% -37.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 38% · top 2 56% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late +15% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$256 vs −$245 · ×1.05 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.81 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$206
Realized+$94
Unrealized−$102
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses7 / 9
Est. fees paid−$18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)16 / 17
History coverage5d
Avg bet$401
Trades / day7.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit35%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 20¢ $308 $206 −$102 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $335 −$217 -65%
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? Jun 21 $283 +$252 +89%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $706 −$423 -60%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $736 −$30 -4%
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 21 $414 +$322 +78%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $642 −$228 -36%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $439 +$203 +46%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $259 +$180 +70%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $137 +$122 +89%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $283 −$146 -52%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $68 −$66 -97%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $445 −$377 -85%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $574 −$129 -22%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $100 +$26 +26%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $600 −$588 -98%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $482 +$686 +142%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $118 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 11¢ $118 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 36¢ $135 1h
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $200 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 26¢ $200 1h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $535 3h
Will Belgium vs. IR Iran end in a draw? BUY Yes 51¢ $283 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 28¢ $283 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $506 4h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $200 6h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 83¢ $706 19h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 84¢ $736 20h
Will Ecuador vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 55¢ $414 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 42¢ $414 22h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 60¢ $442 23h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $200 23h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 67¢ $439 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 100¢ $439 29h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $259 36h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 100¢ $259 43h
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 51¢ $137 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 15¢ $137 43h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 29¢ $283 45h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $68 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 3¢ $68 4d
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 16¢ $445 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 48¢ $445 4d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $574 4d
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 78¢ $100 4d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 65¢ $600 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $206.26 · official $206.26 (match) · 37 history records