Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T11:07:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5

score

24 0x2410…d8ab crypto 20 markets active 4h ago coverage 36d

TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ Small sample

✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)

Total PnL −$36 (-0%) realized −$32 · open −$4

Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗

Gross ROI / mkt -67% what the leader earns

→−copy tax

Net edge / mkt -71% what you keep after slip

Net edge-71%after slip

Net WR0%break-even

Win rate33%6W / 12L

Whale WR100%big bets

Drawdown100%max

Avg bet$723per market

Trades / day0.6pace

Kalshi-fit95%portable

Net worth$2,021now

Equity curve

realized PnL

1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All

2 days$0

7 days−$8

14 days−$9

30 days−$16

Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net

negative after costs — do not copy

break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even

chance a trade nets +0%

net ROI/market (all)-69.8%

timeframe	markets	gross ROI	NET ROI	gross WR	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
≤7d	2	-100.0%	-100.0%	0%	0%	-100.0%
≤30d	15	-59.9%	-63.7%	40%	0%	-9.6%
≤90d	18	-66.6%	-69.8%	33%	0%	-9.7%
all	18	-66.6%	-69.8%	33%	0%	-9.7%

gross = as the leader traded. net = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip

turnover0.6 tr/day

realistic slip~7%

edge survives to0%

copier slippage	NET ROI	NET WR	net PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here	-69.8%	0%	-9.7%
10%	-72.7%	0%	-18.4%
15%	-75.3%	0%	-26.3%
20%	-77.7%	0%	-33.5%

Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a trap: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill

Profit concentration

top 23% · top 2 39% thin sample

Edge freshness (90d)

90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading

Fragile wins

100% wins margin < slip thin sample

Flat-copyable

equal-wt -67% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat

Big bets

big-bet WR 100% (≥$2,057) strong on big bets

Persistence

early -89% → late -44% mixed

Add-ons / DCA

1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries

Win / loss size

+$4 vs −$5 · ×0.89 wins small, loses big

Profit factor

×0.45 loses more than it wins

Copy size

≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

36d coverage

Net worth$2,021

Realized−$32

Unrealized−$4

Win rate (resolved)33%

Wins / losses6 / 12

Whale WR (big bets)100%

Open positions2

Markets (closed)18 / 20

History coverage36d

Avg bet$723

Trades / day0.6

Drawdown100%

Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades

Positions 2 History 18 Trades

Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket

Market	outcome	entry	now	invested	value	unrealized PnL
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	No	100¢	100¢	$2,020	$2,016	−$4 (-0%)
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	No	96¢	96¢	$5	$5	−$0 (-0%)

Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.

Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first

Market	when	invested	PnL	ROI
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	Jun 17	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15?	Jun 16	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 13?	Jun 13	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10?	Jun 11	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6?	Jun 07	$2,074	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6?	Jun 06	$2,071	+$4	+0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5?	Jun 06	$2,066	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5?	Jun 05	$2,062	+$6	+0%
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 4?	Jun 05	$2,057	+$4	+0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4?	Jun 04	$2,053	+$4	+0%
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3?	Jun 03	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30?	May 30	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	May 27	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	May 25	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	May 23	$4	−$4	-100%
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 19?	May 20	$4	−$4	-100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 17?	May 17	$6	−$6	-100%
Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on May 14?	May 14	$4	−$4	-100%

Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.

Latest trades by this wallet

Market	side	price	size	when
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 20?	BUY No	100¢	$2,020	4h
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	BUY No	0¢	$4	3d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,600 on June 17?	BUY No	0¢	$0	3d
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 on June 15?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	4d
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?	BUY No	96¢	$5	6d
Will the price of XRP be between $1.30 and $1.40 on June 13?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	7d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,550 on June 10?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	9d
Will Ethereum dip to $1,500 on June 6?	BUY No	100¢	$2,074	13d
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on June 6?	BUY No	100¢	$2,071	14d
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 on June 5?	BUY No	100¢	$2,066	14d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,900 on June 5?	BUY No	100¢	$2,062	15d
Will Ethereum reach $2,000 on June 4?	BUY No	100¢	$2,057	15d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,500 on June 4?	BUY Yes	100¢	$2,053	16d
Will the price of XRP be between $0.90 and $1.00 on June 3?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	17d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on May 30?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	20d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 27?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	24d
Will Bitcoin dip to $75,000 on May 24?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	26d
Will Ethereum reach $2,150 on May 22?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	28d
Will Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 19?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	31d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 17?	BUY Yes	0¢	$6	33d
Will Bitcoin reach $87,000 on May 14?	BUY Yes	0¢	$4	36d

From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.

✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2,021.03 · official $2,021.03 (match) · 27 history records