Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T04:00:17+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2411…d620 sports 416 markets active 2h ago coverage 5d
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (463 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$220 (+1%) realized +$226 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -28% what you keep after slip
Net edge-28%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate55%213W / 174L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$39per market
Trades / day462.6pace
Fees−$144est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$1,212now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 5d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 72% −$250
other 27% +$2
crypto 1% +$4
world 1% +$30
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (463 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-15.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 387 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 39% -10.8%
≤30d 387 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 39% -10.8%
≤90d 387 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 39% -10.8%
all 387 -6.4% -15.3% 55% 39% -10.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover462.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -15.3% 39% -10.8%
10% ← realistic here -23.4% 30% -19.3%
15% -30.8% 23% -27.1%
20% -37.6% 19% -34.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 9% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
29% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -19% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.1 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$25 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.95 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

5d coverage
Net worth$1,212
Realized+$226
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses213 / 174
Est. fees paid−$144
Open positions29
Markets (closed)387 / 416
History coverage5d
Avg bet$39
Trades / day462.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 29 History 387 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United States win on 2026-07-01? Yes 72¢ 72¢ $179 $180 +$1 (+1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? No 97¢ 97¢ $99 $99 +$0 (+0%)
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 42¢ $98 $97 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 2 Japan? No 95¢ 95¢ $60 $60 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 3 Japan? No 98¢ 98¢ $60 $60 −$0 (-0%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Under 53¢ 55¢ $39 $40 +$1 (+2%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? No 96¢ 96¢ $40 $40 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco? No 98¢ 97¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 3 Morocco? No 98¢ 98¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? No 94¢ 94¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-0%)
Spread: Japan (-1.5) Brazil 95¢ 94¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Japan? No 89¢ 88¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? No 86¢ 86¢ $40 $40 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Japan 70¢ 69¢ $40 $39 −$0 (-1%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 Under 28¢ 28¢ $39 $38 −$1 (-2%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Paraguay 53¢ 50¢ $39 $38 −$2 (-5%)
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 3 Japan? No 99¢ 99¢ $29 $29 +$0 (+0%)
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $19 $23 +$3 (+17%)
Spread: Netherlands (-1.5) Morocco 80¢ 80¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+1%)
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? No 97¢ 98¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Exact Score: Brazil 1 - 3 Japan? No 98¢ 99¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 5.5 Under 96¢ 96¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? No 89¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Spread: Brazil (-2.5) Japan 88¢ 88¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Will Brazil vs. Japan end in a draw? No 75¢ 74¢ $20 $20 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox Jun 29 $201 −$198 -99%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 1 Canada? Jun 29 $40 $0 +1%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 3 Canada? Jun 29 $40 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: South Africa 2 - 0 Canada? Jun 29 $40 +$1 +2%
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Canada? Jun 29 $40 +$4 +9%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? Jun 29 $120 +$11 +9%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 5.5 Jun 29 $20 +$1 +3%
South Africa vs. Canada: South Africa O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $20 +$1 +4%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 0.5 Jun 29 $20 +$2 +9%
South Africa vs. Canada: Both Teams to Score Jun 29 $20 +$16 +82%
South Africa vs. Canada: Canada O/U 1.5 Jun 29 $60 +$57 +95%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 29 $221 −$221 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 1 Canada? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? Jun 29 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: South Africa 3 - 3 Canada? Jun 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will Algeria vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 28 $100 +$28 +28%
Exact Score: Algeria 1 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $20 $0 +2%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 1 Austria? Jun 28 $20 +$2 +8%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 0 Austria? Jun 28 $20 +$6 +32%
Exact Score: Jordan 1 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Exact Score: Algeria 0 - 3 Austria? Jun 28 $40 $0 +1%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $60 −$38 -63%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $131 +$102 +78%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $40 −$40 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $40 −$6 -15%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $101 −$16 -16%
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $20 +$18 +89%
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score Jun 28 $20 +$34 +171%
Algeria vs. Austria: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $40 +$74 +185%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 28 $90 −$9 -10%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $20 +$5 +25%
Jordan vs. Argentina: Argentina O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $22 −$22 -100%
Algeria vs. Austria: Austria 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 28 $40 +$17 +43%
Algeria vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $40 +$150 +374%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 0 Argentina? Jun 28 $20 +$1 +3%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $50 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Jordan 3 - 1 Argentina? Jun 28 $80 $0 -0%
Exact Score: Jordan 0 - 3 Argentina? Jun 28 $80 +$13 +16%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 28 $120 +$8 +7%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 5.5 Jun 28 $20 +$1 +5%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $20 +$3 +16%
Jordan vs. Argentina: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 28 $20 −$20 -100%
Spread: Argentina (-2.5) Jun 28 $40 +$28 +70%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 4.5 Jun 28 $80 +$29 +36%
Jordan vs. Argentina: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $141 +$45 +32%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres Jun 28 $20 +$5 +23%
Colorado Rockies vs. Minnesota Twins: O/U 10.5 Jun 28 $20 +$17 +86%
Seattle Mariners vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 28 $50 +$6 +13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY No 96¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 2 Japan? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $20 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 85¢ $50 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 89¢ $50 1h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 1h
Spread: Germany (-2.5) BUY Germany 28¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 86¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Germany 3 - 2 Paraguay? BUY No 97¢ $20 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 79¢ $50 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 35¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 0 Paraguay? BUY No 89¢ $20 1h
Germany vs. Paraguay: O/U 2.5 BUY Under 43¢ $20 1h
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 1 Japan? BUY No 94¢ $20 1h
New York Yankees vs. Boston Red Sox BUY New York Yankees 61¢ $50 1h
Brazil vs. Japan: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 28¢ $20 21h
South Africa vs. Canada: Draw at halftime? BUY No 57¢ $20 21h
Exact Score: Netherlands 3 - 2 Morocco? BUY No 98¢ $20 21h
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-07-03? BUY Yes 4¢ $20 21h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 21h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 21h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $20 21h
Exact Score: South Africa 0 - 0 Canada? BUY No 91¢ $20 21h
Spread: Japan (-1.5) BUY Brazil 95¢ $20 21h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,212.05 · official $1,212.11 (match) · 2511 history records