Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T22:26:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x2416…a5a3
crypto · 281 markets active 0h ago
0.0score
−$12 -3%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$10 · open −$2
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$0
Realized−$10
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses163 / 117
Open positions1
Markets (closed)280 / 281
History coverage36d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day14.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%
Chart Positions 1 History 280 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$6
14 days+$6
30 days+$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Down 46¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-99%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 11:15PM-11:30PM ET Up 36¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Up 33¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Up 76¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Up 44¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 12:15AM-12:30AM ET Up 19¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Up 63¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Up 31¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Down 24¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Down 26¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 11:10PM-11:15PM ET Down 20¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Down 8¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Down 48¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Up 74¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 12:40AM-12:45AM ET Down 59¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Up 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Down 58¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Up 11¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 18, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Up 21¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Down 9¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Down 44¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 13, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Up 3¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Down 10¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 13 $1 +$1 +105%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$2 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$1 +43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 13 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +136%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 13 $2 +$3 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 13 $2 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 13 $3 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 13 $2 +$2 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 13 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 12 $2 $0 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 11 $1 $0 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 08 $1 $0 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 01 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET May 31 $2 −$1 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET May 31 $2 $0 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 31 $1 $0 -6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET May 31 $2 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:15PM-2:30PM ET May 31 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:40PM-1:45PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET May 31 $1 $0 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET May 31 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET May 31 $1 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 31, 1:00AM-1:15AM ET May 31 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
crypto 100% −$12
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $2 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Up 98¢ $2 6m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 7m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 14¢ $3 51m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 20¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET SELL Down 81¢ $1 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET SELL Up 72¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET SELL Up 64¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Up 55¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Up 66¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET SELL Down 80¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET SELL Down 64¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 42¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET SELL Down 57¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $2 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 38¢ $3 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Up 63¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 54¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET SELL Up 59¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 23¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET BUY Up 36¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET SELL Up 58¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET SELL Up 59¢ $2 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $2 16h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-11.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 +13.3% +2.5% 64% 48% +1.7%
≤30d 169 +0.2% -9.4% 57% 38% -7.0%
≤90d 280 -2.7% -11.9% 58% 40% -11.8%
all 280 -2.7% -11.9% 58% 40% -11.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover14.1 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.9% 40% -11.8%
10% -20.4% 31% -20.3%
15% -28.1% 20% -28.0%
20% -35.1% 12% -35.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.02 · official $2.02 · 609 history records