Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T10:41:05+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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24 0x2418…66c8 sports 470 markets active 0h ago coverage 138d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 137d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$28,359 (-10%) realized −$28,097 · open −$262
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -22% what you keep after slip
Net edge-22%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%260W / 206L
Whale WR52%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$610per market
Trades / day21.4pace
Fees−$2,093est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$85
7 days+$85
14 days−$21,105
30 days−$19,680
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 100% −$14,353
other 0% −$125
world 0% +$21
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-4.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 23 -2.7% -12.0% 57% 57% -8.3%
≤30d 144 -24.7% -31.8% 42% 39% -31.5%
≤90d 317 -29.2% -35.9% 37% 35% -40.3%
all 466 +5.7% -4.3% 56% 52% -14.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover21.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -4.3% 52% -14.1%
10% -13.5% 47% -22.3%
15% ← realistic here -21.9% 40% -29.8%
20% -29.5% 36% -36.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -34% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
8% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +6% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 52% (≥$726) neutral
Persistence
early +47% → late -35% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
4.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$410 vs −$586 · ×0.7 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.88 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

138d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized−$28,097
Unrealized−$262
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses260 / 206
Whale WR (big bets)52%
Est. fees paid−$2,093
Open positions4
Markets (closed)466 / 470
History coverage138d ⚠
Avg bet$610
Trades / day21.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 466 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage REJECT 59¢ 64¢ $649 $699 +$49 (+8%)
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ 0¢ $110 $0 −$109 (-100%)
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winner Alpha Dominion Nation 24¢ 0¢ $153 $0 −$152 (-100%)
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ 0¢ $50 $0 −$50 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 15 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 1 Winne Jun 28 $41 +$11 +26%
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage Jun 28 $348 +$102 +29%
Games Total: O/U 3.5 Jun 28 $348 +$238 +68%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty League St Jun 27 $418 +$140 +33%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs ECHO (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 27 $547 −$194 -36%
Counter-Strike: Game Hunters vs Vexa (BO3) - CCT South America Series Jun 27 $307 +$113 +37%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks (BO3) - Super DraculaN Jun 27 $1,263 −$365 -29%
Map 3 Total Rounds: Over/Under 21.5 Jun 27 $127 −$125 -98%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs G2 Minnesota (BO5) - Call of Duty Jun 27 $3 −$3 -100%
Call of Duty: FaZe Vegas vs Los Angeles Thieves (BO5) - Call of Duty L Jun 27 $282 +$158 +56%
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs Sharks - Map 2 Winner Jun 27 $795 −$795 -100%
Valorant: Division One vs Pigeons (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 G Jun 27 $546 +$447 +82%
Valorant: SaD Esports vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage Jun 27 $524 +$285 +54%
Map Handicap: PGS (-1.5) vs Division One (+1.5) Jun 26 $391 +$113 +29%
Valorant: Azure Dragon Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America Jun 26 $1,668 −$176 -11%
Map Handicap: ISG (-1.5) vs MIBR Academy (+1.5) Jun 26 $69 +$34 +49%
Counter-Strike: MIBR Academy vs Isurus - Map 2 Winner Jun 26 $245 −$245 -100%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports (BO3) - Super Dracula Jun 26 $362 −$362 -100%
Call of Duty: Carolina Royal Ravens vs Miami Heretics (BO5) - Call of Jun 26 $656 −$61 -9%
Call of Duty: Riyadh Falcons vs Toronto KOI (BO5) - Call of Duty Leagu Jun 26 $226 +$438 +194%
Counter-Strike: Walczaki vs Inner Circle Esports - Map 1 Winner Jun 26 $8 −$8 -100%
Call of Duty: Paris Gentle Mates vs FaZe Vegas (BO5) - Call of Duty Le Jun 26 $368 +$131 +36%
Counter-Strike: Acend vs Infinite (BO3) - Super DraculaN Playoffs Jun 26 $256 +$209 +82%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $4,956 −$1,956 -40%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 2 Winner Jun 20 $527 −$527 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs Team Falcons - Map 1 Winner Jun 20 $703 +$824 +117%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playo Jun 20 $1,594 +$1,100 +69%
Counter-Strike: Team Nemesis vs TDK (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playo Jun 20 $807 +$294 +36%
Map Handicap: NEM (-1.5) vs TDK (+1.5) Jun 20 $851 +$377 +44%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 19 $8,228 −$8,228 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $2,003 +$2,332 +116%
Valorant: EDward Gaming vs Paper Rex (BO3) - VCT Masters London Playof Jun 19 $2,115 +$684 +32%
Map Handicap: TS (-1.5) vs G2 (+1.5) Jun 19 $2,000 +$1,996 +100%
Valorant: M80 vs SaD Esports (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Group Jun 19 $1,721 +$1,440 +84%
Valorant: YFP Gaming vs NRG Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Stage 3 Jun 19 $229 +$116 +50%
Valorant: 9z Team vs OXEN (BO3) - VCL Latin America South: Regular Sea Jun 19 $1,009 +$1,511 +150%
Valorant: Stray Kittens vs LAZER - Map 1 Winner Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Valorant: Shopify Rebellion Black vs Azure Dragon Gaming (BO3) - VCL N Jun 18 $475 −$465 -98%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs 9z (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 18 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Map Handicap: TDK (-1.5) vs Walczaki (+1.5) Jun 18 $139 +$111 +79%
Counter-Strike: Aurora Gaming vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 18 $3,553 −$3,496 -98%
Valorant: FlyQuest vs Evil Geniuses Academy (BO3) - VCL North America: Jun 18 $662 +$777 +117%
Map Handicap: EVI (-1.5) vs Division One (+1.5) Jun 18 $170 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: KOLESIE vs illwill (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Group Jun 17 $119 +$124 +104%
Valorant: Division One vs Team Evictix (BO3) - VCL North America: Stag Jun 17 $463 −$463 -100%
Counter-Strike: Nuclear TigeRES vs K27 (BO3) - NODWIN Clutch Series Pl Jun 17 $790 +$790 +100%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs ODDIK (BO3) - ESL Challenger Leagu Jun 16 $17 −$17 -100%
Counter-Strike: RED Canids vs Galorys - Map 2 Winner Jun 16 $16 −$16 -100%
Counter-Strike: TheMongolz vs MOUZ (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Playoffs Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - Roman Imperium Cu Jun 16 $30 −$30 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 1 Winne SELL ex-MANA eSports 100¢ $52 15m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 53¢ $8 24m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 53¢ $257 24m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL REJECT 64¢ $16 45m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL REJECT 64¢ $17 48m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL REJECT 64¢ $64 49m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL REJECT 64¢ $24 50m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL REJECT 64¢ $32 50m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 64¢ $161 54m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 64¢ $4 55m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 64¢ $307 58m
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage SELL Fennel 100¢ $450 58m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 64¢ $7 58m
Valorant: REJECT vs Riddle (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY REJECT 64¢ $58 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winne BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 23¢ $46 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 2 Winne BUY Alpha Dominion Nation 24¢ $110 1h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 1 Winne BUY ex-MANA eSports 79¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 1 Winne BUY ex-MANA eSports 79¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 1 Winne BUY ex-MANA eSports 79¢ $8 2h
Counter-Strike: ex-MANA eSports vs Alpha Dominion Nation - Map 1 Winne BUY ex-MANA eSports 79¢ $17 2h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 85¢ $28 2h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 85¢ $24 2h
LoL: Karmine Corp vs Deep Cross Gaming - Game 3 Winner BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $50 2h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Deep Cross Gaming 16¢ $110 2h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) SELL Karmine Corp 83¢ $953 3h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 77¢ $3 3h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 76¢ $56 3h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 76¢ $76 3h
Valorant: Insomnia vs Fennel (BO3) - VCL Japan Main Stage BUY Fennel 76¢ $162 3h
Game Handicap: KC (-2.5) vs Deep Cross Gaming (+2.5) BUY Karmine Corp 45¢ $1 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.75 · official $666.73 · 3500 history records