Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T20:56:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x241a…c5da crypto 644 markets active 0h ago coverage 155d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$146 (-5%) realized −$146 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate58%375W / 269L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.4pace
Kalshi-fit95%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$26
14 days−$46
30 days−$66
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 58% −$89
politics 23% +$25
world 9% −$33
other 3% −$8
tech 3% −$22
economics 3% −$35
sports 0% +$1
finance 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 283 -1.8% -11.2% 64% 60% -13.6%
≤30d 482 -8.0% -16.8% 61% 56% -15.9%
≤90d 516 -8.5% -17.2% 61% 56% -17.9%
all 644 -9.1% -17.8% 58% 50% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.4 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 50% -14.9%
10% -25.7% 36% -23.0%
15% -32.8% 26% -30.4%
20% -39.4% 17% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 5% · top 2 9% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -9% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
13% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -13% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.52 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.73 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

155d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$146
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses375 / 269
Open positions0
Markets (closed)644 / 644
History coverage155d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit95%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 644 Trades
no open positions (185 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 18 $2 −$2 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 18 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 18 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $4 +$1 +20%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 18 $3 −$2 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 18 $1 $0 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 18 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +55%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 17 $4 −$4 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $2 +$1 +32%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +101%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +16%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 17 $6 +$4 +60%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:15AM-6:20AM ET Jun 17 $4 −$3 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -95%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 17 $2 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 17 $7 −$6 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 17 $4 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 17 $3 $0 +9%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 16 $4 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 16, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 +$1 +119%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $2 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 21m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 59¢ $1 26m
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $1 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Up 30¢ $1 6h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET BUY Up 42¢ $1 13h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 18, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 46¢ $1 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $4 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $6 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 17h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $2 18h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $4 19h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $1 20h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 52¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $1 21h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Down 40¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 22h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 23h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 27¢ $1 23h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $3 24h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $4 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 44¢ $1 25h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Down 75¢ $2 28h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $1 29h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 30h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $3 31h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1232 history records