Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T21:50:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x241d…bb60 other 49 markets active 1h ago coverage 202d
RISKYcopy with care Fresh edge
! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$90 (-5%) realized −$90 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +25% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +13% what you keep after slip
Net edge+13%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate47%23W / 26L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$37per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$69
7 days+$187
14 days+$187
30 days−$57
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% +$170
sports 32% −$69
crypto 14% −$158
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 42 +32.6% +20.0% 48% 43% +1.1%
≤30d 49 +25.3% +13.3% 47% 43% -12.5%
≤90d 49 +25.3% +13.3% 47% 43% -12.5%
all 49 +25.3% +13.3% 47% 43% -12.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +13.3% 43% -12.5%
10% +2.5% 39% -20.9%
15% -7.4% 35% -28.5%
20% -16.5% 27% -35.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 46% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
9% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +25% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -37% → late +85% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$27 vs −$26 · ×1.04 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

202d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$90
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)47%
Wins / losses23 / 26
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)49 / 49
History coverage202d
Avg bet$37
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 49 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $40 +$42 +104%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $22 −$22 -100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 +$6 +113%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $5 +$9 +172%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 17 $2 +$16 +906%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $4 +$1 +39%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 −$4 -100%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $34 +$25 +72%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $24 +$1 +3%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $23 +$22 +97%
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $11 +$9 +85%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $12 $0 +2%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Spain O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $40 +$132 +326%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Germany O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $19 +$6 +31%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $25 −$25 -100%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 14 $26 −$26 -100%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $45 −$45 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 6.5 Jun 14 $13 +$5 +35%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 5.5 Jun 14 $26 +$4 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Jun 14 $53 +$18 +33%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $787 +$288 +36%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 11 $8 −$8 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 11 $4 −$4 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:15PM ET Jun 11 $0 $0 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 11 $7 −$7 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 5:30AM-5:45AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 11 $141 −$141 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 11 $11 −$11 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 11 $10 −$10 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 11 $1 −$1 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 11 $3 −$3 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 11 $6 +$7 +110%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 11 $8 +$4 +50%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 11 $13 −$13 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 11 $10 +$5 +44%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 11 $8 +$17 +203%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 1, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 01 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET May 22 $6 +$4 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:05AM ET May 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Chiefs vs. Cowboys May 22 $250 −$250 -100%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - May 22, 5:00AM-5:15AM ET May 22 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET May 22 $5 +$9 +177%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $82 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 48¢ $12 1h
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 22¢ $5 1h
England vs. Croatia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $40 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 8¢ $1 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $0 2h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 39¢ $7 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 44¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 51¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? BUY Yes 36¢ $5 3h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 59¢ $5 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 35¢ $16 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals SELL Yes 35¢ $1 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 2¢ $1 3h
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 72¢ $4 15h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 23h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 20¢ $5 23h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 23h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $59 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 SELL Under 100¢ $25 24h
France vs. Senegal: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 97¢ $24 24h
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 58¢ $34 26h
Belgium vs. Egypt: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $45 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $20 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? SELL Yes 100¢ $12 2d
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? BUY Yes 98¢ $12 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $11 2d
Belgium vs. Egypt: Egypt O/U 0.5 BUY Over 54¢ $0 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 159 history records