Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T13:19:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x241e…04cb sports 595 markets active 2h ago coverage 136d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$267 (-2%) realized −$264 · open −$3
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR54%break-even
Win rate62%365W / 226L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$60est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$141now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$119
7 days−$460
14 days−$387
30 days−$285
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 81% −$223
other 18% −$139
crypto 1% +$14
tech 0% −$3
finance 0% −$1
world 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +54%
net ROI/market (all)-9.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 94 -40.4% -46.1% 40% 40% -36.6%
≤30d 138 -19.9% -27.5% 57% 52% -21.8%
≤90d 383 -2.9% -12.2% 61% 55% -14.1%
all 591 -0.4% -9.9% 62% 54% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.9% 54% -12.3%
10% -18.5% 47% -20.7%
15% -26.4% 35% -28.3%
20% -33.6% 23% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -0% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +3% → late -3% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$9 vs −$16 · ×0.56 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

136d coverage
Net worth$141
Realized−$264
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses365 / 226
Est. fees paid−$60
Open positions3
Markets (closed)591 / 595
History coverage136d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 591 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? Yes 86¢ 86¢ $140 $139 −$1 (-1%)
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 52¢ 98¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+88%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by June 30? Yes 35¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-94%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 23 $15 −$15 -98%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich Jun 23 $30 −$30 -99%
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova Jun 23 $26 −$26 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 23 $5 +$2 +40%
France leading at halftime? Jun 23 $30 +$10 +32%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $30 +$5 +17%
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 −$10 -98%
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -99%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 22 $20 +$8 +42%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 22 $10 +$8 +81%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $33 +$7 +20%
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $20 −$20 -98%
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $8 −$8 -98%
Naomi Osaka vs. Magdalena Frech: Total Sets O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $10 +$2 +24%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $5 +$5 +105%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $10 +$2 +24%
Spain leading at halftime? Jun 21 $10 +$4 +36%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $5 +$4 +83%
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$2 +18%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -99%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $10 +$5 +46%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$18 +44%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 +$2 +16%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $11 +$3 +29%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $10 +$3 +31%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $10 +$7 +73%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 20 $20 +$4 +18%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $30 +$22 +73%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $15 +$8 +55%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $37 +$12 +32%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -99%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $2 −$2 -98%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $4 −$4 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 20 $5 +$2 +42%
Nottingham Open: Karolina Pliskova vs Marie Bouzkova Jun 20 $20 +$19 +93%
Grass Court Championships: Aryna Sabalenka vs Jessica Pegula Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
FC Barcelona vs. RC Celta de Vigo: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Halle Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Daniil Medvedev Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Bucheon FC 1995 vs. Jeju SK FC: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Beşiktaş JK vs. Fatih Karagümrük SK: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Arsenal FC vs. Club Atlético de Madrid: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Saint-Etienne vs. Nice: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-04? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Como 1907 vs. SSC Napoli: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Liberia vs. Sierra Leone: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Atalanta BC vs. Genoa CFC: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 72¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $5 1h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 86¢ $141 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Dominika Salkova vs Iryna Shymanovich BUY Dominika Salkova 61¢ $30 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Linda Noskova BUY Linda Noskova 57¢ $26 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 7h
France vs. Iraq: France 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 50¢ $10 16h
France leading at halftime? BUY Yes 75¢ $30 16h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Over 28¢ $10 16h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 56¢ $20 16h
France vs. Iraq: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $30 16h
Argentina leading at halftime? SELL Yes 94¢ $18 19h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 83¢ $40 19h
Argentina vs. Austria: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $20 20h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $33 20h
Argentina leading at halftime? BUY Yes 51¢ $10 20h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 35¢ $8 20h
Argentina vs. Austria: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 70¢ $20 20h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 48¢ $5 35h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 80¢ $10 35h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 54¢ $10 44h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $30 44h
Naomi Osaka vs. Magdalena Frech: Total Sets O/U 2.5 BUY Under 2.5 80¢ $10 45h
Spain leading at halftime? BUY Yes 73¢ $10 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 54¢ $5 45h
Spain vs. Saudi Arabia: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 84¢ $10 45h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 68¢ $10 2d
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $10 2d
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 86¢ $10 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $141.24 · official $141.25 (match) · 1199 history records