Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T10:48:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x2420…8bbc sports 12 markets active 1h ago coverage 63d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$2 (-0%) realized −$2 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -6% what you keep after slip
Net edge-6%after slip
Net WR17%break-even
Win rate83%10W / 2L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 90% −$4
tech 3% $0
sports 1% +$1
economics 1% $0
crypto 1% $0
finance 1% $0
culture 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +17%
net ROI/market (all)-6.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 6 +0.1% -9.5% 83% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 12 +3.7% -6.2% 83% 17% -9.6%
all 12 +3.7% -6.2% 83% 17% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -6.2% 17% -9.6%
10% -15.2% 8% -18.3%
15% -23.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -30.9% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 57% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
80% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +7% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$4 · ×0.02 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.2 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

63d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)83%
Wins / losses10 / 2
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)12 / 12
History coverage63d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 12 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $36 $0 +0%
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 05 $36 $0 +0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 03 $36 $0 +0%
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 27 $36 $0 +0%
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec May 26 $24 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 06 $36 $0 +0%
LoL: Karmine Corp vs SK Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifie May 04 $1 $0 +16%
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs May 04 $1 $0 +27%
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 04 $2,523 −$4 -0%
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? Apr 29 $40 $0 +0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Apr 23 $40 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 1h
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? SELL No 100¢ $36 14d
Will Trump and Putin meet next in Turkey? BUY No 100¢ $36 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $36 16d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $10 18d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? BUY No 99¢ $26 18d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 19d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 25d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 99¢ $36 26d
Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $36 26d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec SELL No 100¢ $24 26d
Will Rodina gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary elec BUY No 100¢ $24 45d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $36 46d
Will Elon Musk win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $36 46d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2,519 49d
Will Phil Murphy win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $2,523 52d
LoL: Karmine Corp vs SK Gaming (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualifie BUY Karmine Corp 86¢ $1 53d
Dota 2: Nigma Galaxy vs 1win (BO3) - DreamLeague Division 2 Playoffs BUY Nigma Galaxy 78¢ $1 53d
Will the Phoenix Suns win the NBA Western Conference Finals? BUY No 100¢ $40 59d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $40 59d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $29 62d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 99¢ $11 62d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 31 history records