Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2422…0cc4 other 52 markets active 1h ago coverage 20d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)
Total PnL −$25 (-11%) realized −$25 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -16% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%17W / 35L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day5.9pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit42%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$38
7 days+$27
14 days+$29
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 50% −$19
sports 35% +$42
weather 15% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 28 +5.3% -4.8% 36% 36% +6.1%
≤30d 52 -15.8% -23.8% 33% 29% -3.5%
≤90d 52 -15.8% -23.8% 33% 29% -3.5%
all 52 -15.8% -23.8% 33% 29% -3.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.8% 29% -3.5%
10% -31.1% 27% -12.7%
15% -37.8% 19% -21.2%
20% -43.9% 17% -28.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 55% · top 2 64% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -16% · $-wt +7% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -32% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$2 · ×2.52 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.22 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

20d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$25
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses17 / 35
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions0
Markets (closed)52 / 52
History coverage20d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day5.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit42%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 52 Trades
no open positions (12 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $25 +$46 +180%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $20 $0 -1%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $13 −$5 -37%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $4 +$4 +94%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 19 $10 −$7 -67%
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 $0 -28%
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 +$1 +73%
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $12 −$1 -7%
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 18 $1 −$1 -49%
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $4 +$1 +28%
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) Jun 17 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $17 −$1 -5%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -98%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $9 +$1 +12%
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 −$1 -81%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 15 $4 +$7 +162%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 2 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -53%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 2 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -63%
Exact Score: Haiti 0 - 1 Scotland? Jun 14 $1 +$3 +309%
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Jun 14 $1 +$2 +220%
Exact Score: Côte d'Ivoire 1 - 1 Ecuador? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 $0 -4%
Will UD Las Palmas win on 2026-06-10? Jun 13 $1 +$1 +134%
Will France win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Finland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-09? Jun 09 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Hungary win on 2026-06-09? Jun 08 $1 −$1 -97%
San Francisco Giants vs. Chicago Cubs Jun 08 $7 +$2 +33%
Will Morocco vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 08 $3 +$7 +238%
Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on 2026-06-06? Jun 06 $4 −$4 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-04? Jun 04 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Italy win on 2026-06-03? Jun 03 $12 +$3 +24%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 30°C or higher on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 2? Jun 02 $4 −$3 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 −$1 -73%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 2? Jun 02 $1 $0 -14%
Will Slovakia vs. Malta end in a draw? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Slovakia win on 2026-06-01? Jun 01 $6 −$5 -82%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 16°C on June 1? Jun 01 $6 $0 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Helsinki be 17°C on June 1? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -68%
Will the highest temperature in Panama City be 30°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 $0 +4%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C or higher on June 1? Jun 01 $6 −$3 -45%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 1? Jun 01 $2 +$1 +46%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 22°C on May 31? May 31 $2 −$1 -58%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on May 31? May 31 $5 +$4 +76%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 SELL Over 89¢ $71 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 SELL Over 38¢ $20 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $24 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 31¢ $2 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 37¢ $20 2h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 27¢ $8 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? SELL Yes 72¢ $8 24h
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 24h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL Yes $3 24h
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 41¢ $13 2d
Will Belgium win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $2 2d
Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $11 2d
Will Panama win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes $1 2d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $1 2d
England vs. Croatia: Croatia O/U 2.5 BUY Over 43¢ $5 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 76¢ $6 2d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 58¢ $4 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) SELL Portugal $0 2d
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 2d
Spread: Portugal (-1.5) BUY Portugal 52¢ $4 2d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 20¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 2 Panama? BUY Yes $5 3d
Exact Score: Ghana 1 - 1 Panama? BUY Yes 15¢ $5 3d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? SELL No 100¢ $10 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? SELL Yes 16¢ $1 4d
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 89¢ $9 4d
Exact Score: Belgium 2 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 4d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes $0 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 133 history records