Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T21:01:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x2422…2986
sports · 412 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$10 -2%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$7 · open −$3
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
Net worth$31
Realized−$7
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)44%
Wins / losses167 / 211
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions34
Markets (closed)378 / 412
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1
Trades / day43.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%
Chart Positions 34 History 378 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$16
7 days+$16
14 days−$7
30 days−$7
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Qatar vs. Switzerland: O/U 2.5 Under 43¢ 94¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+119%)
AHL: Toronto Marlies vs. Chicago Wolves Toronto Marlies 47¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+112%)
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia: O/U 174.5 Under 54¢ 100¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+85%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 Under 37¢ 68¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+82%)
Haiti vs. Scotland: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Over 33¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+14%)
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+9%)
Spread: Scotland (-1.5) Scotland 36¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+7%)
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 Under 36¢ 37¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+3%)
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Under 33¢ 34¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+2%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Colorado Rockies 38¢ 38¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Minnesota Lynx vs. Las Vegas Aces: O/U 174.5 Over 50¢ 50¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 Under 51¢ 52¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Los Angeles Angels Tampa Bay Rays 51¢ 50¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane end in a draw? Yes 32¢ 31¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Houston Astros vs. Kansas City Royals Houston Astros 47¢ 46¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Chicago Cubs 46¢ 44¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-3%)
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants San Francisco Giants 51¢ 48¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 Over 39¢ 37¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics Athletics 64¢ 58¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-9%)
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds Cincinnati Reds 44¢ 38¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-12%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 Over 50¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-14%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 177.5 Over 50¢ 42¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-16%)
Los Angeles Sparks vs. Phoenix Mercury: O/U 176.5 Over 52¢ 43¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-17%)
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets New York Mets 51¢ 40¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-23%)
Will Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino end in a draw? Yes 31¢ 22¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-27%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas Jun 13 $1 +$2 +188%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee Jun 13 $1 +$1 +52%
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi Jun 13 $1 +$2 +158%
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
BC Lietkabelis Panevezys vs. BC Neptunas Klaipeda: O/U 159.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Zagreb: Kajsa Rinaldo Persson vs Anna-Lena Friedsam Jun 13 $1 +$2 +152%
FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki: O/U 3.5 Jun 13 $1 +$2 +197%
Lyon: David Jorda Sanchis vs Tristan Boyer Jun 13 $1 +$2 +165%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Harry Wendelken vs Adam Walton Jun 13 $1 +$1 +146%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Panna Udvardy vs Katie Volynets Jun 13 $1 +$1 +62%
ITF Kursumlijska Banja: Sean Cuenin vs Branko Djuric Jun 13 $1 +$1 +57%
Will FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki end in a draw? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Hannah Klugman vs Anastasia Zakharova Jun 13 $1 +$1 +124%
ITF Nice: Alina Granwehr vs Jenny Lim Jun 13 $1 +$1 +90%
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Cattolica: Jesper de Jong vs Enrico Dalla Valle Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Halle Open, Qualification: Martin Landaluce vs Marc-Andrea Huesler Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Oliver Tarvet vs Filippo Romano Jun 13 $1 +$2 +180%
Ilkley: Dane Sweeny vs Toby Samuel Jun 13 $1 +$2 +180%
Ilkley: Ashlyn Krueger vs Darja Vidmanova Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Darwin Blanch vs Jacob Fearnley Jun 13 $1 +$1 +83%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Elena Ruxandra Bertea vs Eva Vedder Jun 13 $1 +$1 +65%
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Zachary Svajda vs Liam Broady Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Casablanca: Nina Vargova vs Luna Vujovic Jun 13 $1 +$1 +55%
IFK Mariehamn vs. IF Gnistan: O/U 2.5 Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Ceska Lipa: Caijsa Hennemann vs Julia Avdeeva Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Golden State Valkyries vs. Seattle Storm: O/U 156.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +114%
ITF Martos: Pablo Martinez Gomez vs Pablo Perez Ramos Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Ilkley: Mark Lajal vs Yunchaokete Bu Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Varnamo: Henry Bernet vs Sandro Kopp Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Bratislava: Alexander Shevchenko vs Vitaliy Sachko Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
Libema Open: Barbora Krejcikova vs Magda Linette Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Martos: Rafael Izquierdo Luque vs Joao Domingues Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Wuning: Yujia Huang vs Sara Saito Jun 13 $1 +$1 +140%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Samsung Lions Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Hurghada: Polina Iatcenko vs Anastasia Tikhonova Jun 13 $1 −$1 -98%
ITF Tokyo: Mayuka Aikawa vs Ikumi Yamazaki Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants: O/U 8.5 Jun 13 $1 +$1 +97%
ITF Wuning: Zongyu Li vs Mai Hontama Jun 13 $1 −$1 -99%
ITF Tokyo: Hikaru Shiraishi vs Jangjun Kim Jun 13 $1 +$1 +73%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 99% −$7
other 1% −$4
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Arizona Diamondbacks vs. Cincinnati Reds: O/U 9.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 54m
Texas Rangers vs. Boston Red Sox: O/U 7.5 BUY Over 51¢ $1 1h
Atlanta Braves vs. New York Mets: O/U 8.5 BUY Over 50¢ $1 1h
Seattle Mariners vs. Washington Nationals: O/U 7.5 BUY Under 36¢ $1 1h
Olimpia Milano vs. Reyer Venezia: O/U 174.5 BUY Under 54¢ $1 1h
ITF Cuiaba: Martina Capurro Taborda vs Antonia Rivera BUY Martina Capurro Taborda 51¢ $1 1h
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 58¢ $1 1h
Will Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino end in a draw? BUY Yes 31¢ $1 1h
Everton de Viña del Mar vs. CD Palestino: O/U 1.5 BUY Under 32¢ $1 1h
Miami Marlins vs. Pittsburgh Pirates: O/U 10.5 BUY Over 39¢ $1 1h
Fenerbahce vs. Besiktas BUY Besiktas 34¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Zeynep Sonmez vs Lanlana Tararudee BUY Zeynep Sonmez 65¢ $1 2h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Oksana Selekhmeteva vs Taylah Preston BUY Oksana Selekhmeteva 35¢ $1 2h
San Diego Padres vs. Baltimore Orioles: O/U 9.5 BUY Under 45¢ $1 3h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays BUY Toronto Blue Jays 48¢ $1 3h
Modena: Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva vs Katarzyna Kawa BUY Victoria Jimenez Kasintseva 54¢ $1 4h
Brazil vs. Morocco: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Under 33¢ $1 4h
Ilkley: Jacob Fearnley vs Filippo Romano BUY Filippo Romano 37¢ $1 4h
Nottingham Open, Qualification: Viktorija Golubic vs Veronika Erjavec BUY Veronika Erjavec 35¢ $1 4h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Daniel Evans vs Marcos Giron BUY Daniel Evans 34¢ $1 4h
New York Yankees vs. Toronto Blue Jays: O/U 6.5 BUY Under 37¢ $1 4h
Colorado Rockies vs. Athletics BUY Colorado Rockies 38¢ $1 4h
Cattolica: Roberto Carballes Baena vs Francesco Forti BUY Roberto Carballes Baena 64¢ $1 4h
Tucuman: Guido Justo vs Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi BUY Luciano Emanuel Ambrogi 38¢ $1 5h
Lyon: Daniel Galan vs Felix Balshaw BUY Felix Balshaw 57¢ $1 5h
Will HUS Agadir vs. RS Berkane end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5h
Will FF Jaro vs. HJK Helsinki end in a draw? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 5h
HSBC Championships, Qualification: Dino Prizmic vs Rinky Hijikata BUY Rinky Hijikata 52¢ $1 6h
Indiana Fever vs. Connecticut Sun: O/U 171.5 BUY Under 51¢ $1 6h
ITF San Gregorio: Andreea Prisacariu vs Lucciana Perez Alarcon BUY Andreea Prisacariu 37¢ $1 7h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 236 +6.0% -4.1% 49% 49% -3.3%
≤30d 378 -3.2% -12.4% 44% 44% -11.3%
≤90d 378 -3.2% -12.4% 44% 44% -11.3%
all 378 -3.2% -12.4% 44% 44% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover43.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.4% 44% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -20.8% 44% -19.8%
15% -28.4% 44% -27.5%
20% -35.4% 43% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $31.39 · official $31.39 (match) · 599 history records