Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T00:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2424…8c23 crypto 371 markets active 5h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$59 (-10%) realized −$59 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR52%break-even
Win rate56%206W / 165L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day7.5pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$6
7 days+$15
14 days+$12
30 days−$10
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$68
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +52%
net ROI/market (all)-15.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 147 +9.6% -0.8% 76% 73% -0.2%
≤30d 255 -4.7% -13.8% 65% 62% -13.0%
≤90d 371 -6.9% -15.8% 56% 52% -20.4%
all 371 -6.9% -15.8% 56% 52% -20.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.8% 52% -20.4%
10% -23.8% 46% -28.0%
15% -31.2% 32% -35.0%
20% -37.9% 20% -41.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -16% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.6 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.75 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$59
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses206 / 165
Open positions0
Markets (closed)371 / 371
History coverage50d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day7.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 371 Trades
no open positions (154 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$2 +173%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 17 $1 +$3 +252%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:40AM-9:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:50AM-7:55AM ET Jun 17 $1 +$1 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:35AM-7:40AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 12 $1 +$1 +60%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 61¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Down 71¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 54¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET BUY Up 27¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET BUY Down 66¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET BUY Up 71¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET BUY Up 69¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:35AM-11:40AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 68¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 56¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $1 10h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 602 history records