Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T23:24:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
24 0x2429…269a crypto 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 9d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$58 (+6%) realized +$58 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR73%break-even
Win rate74%55W / 19L
Drawdown66%max
Avg bet$14per market
Trades / day8.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$46
7 days−$36
14 days+$43
30 days+$43
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$43
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +73%
net ROI/market (all)-5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -2.5% -11.8% 71% 71% -14.9%
≤30d 74 +4.6% -5.4% 74% 73% -5.7%
≤90d 74 +4.6% -5.4% 74% 73% -5.7%
all 74 +4.6% -5.4% 74% 73% -5.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.0 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -5.4% 73% -5.7%
10% -14.4% 58% -14.8%
15% -22.7% 38% -23.0%
20% -30.3% 19% -30.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 17% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +13% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$14 · ×0.4 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.16 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

9d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$58
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)74%
Wins / losses55 / 19
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage9d
Avg bet$14
Trades / day8.0
Drawdown66%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions (17 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 28 $17 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 28 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 28 $34 −$33 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 28 $14 +$7 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 28 $17 −$17 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 28 $15 −$14 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET Jun 28 $17 +$8 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 28 $18 +$6 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 28 $5 +$2 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET Jun 28 $16 +$7 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET Jun 28 $34 +$32 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 28 $21 −$21 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$8 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$4 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 27 $14 −$13 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$4 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET Jun 27 $18 +$4 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET Jun 27 $15 +$2 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET Jun 27 $17 −$16 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET Jun 27 $17 −$17 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$3 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 27 $15 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET Jun 27 $14 −$14 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 27 $16 +$5 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$5 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET Jun 27 $14 +$5 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 26 $17 −$16 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET Jun 25 $15 +$4 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 25 $20 +$4 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET Jun 24 $14 +$4 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 24 $14 +$7 +48%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15AM-6:30AM ET Jun 24 $18 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 23 $22 −$22 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 4:15AM-4:30AM ET Jun 23 $17 +$10 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 23, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 23 $15 +$2 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$4 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 22 $9 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 22, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 22 $13 +$8 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 21 $11 +$6 +57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$3 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 21 $9 −$8 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $14 −$14 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$3 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 21 $11 +$6 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $13 +$6 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 21 $8 +$4 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 21 $10 +$4 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:45AM-3:00AM ET Jun 21 $9 +$5 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 21 $13 +$7 +55%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 73¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 86¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Down 57¢ $34 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Up 67¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $17 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 62¢ $15 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 6:00AM-6:15AM ET BUY Up 67¢ $17 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $18 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $5 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:15AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $16 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:45PM-12:00AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $34 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $21 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:00PM-6:15PM ET BUY Down 65¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $15 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET BUY Up 66¢ $14 25h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $14 26h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:30PM-3:45PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $18 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 3:15PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 88¢ $15 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:45PM-3:00PM ET BUY Down 59¢ $17 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 12:45PM-1:00PM ET BUY Down 58¢ $17 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Up 84¢ $16 33h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET BUY Down 66¢ $15 34h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 80¢ $14 35h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:00AM-7:15AM ET BUY Down 75¢ $16 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:30AM ET BUY Down 71¢ $14 42h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 10:15PM-10:30PM ET BUY Up 74¢ $14 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 63¢ $17 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:45AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 78¢ $15 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 25, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET BUY Down 84¢ $20 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 11:45AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $14 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records