Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T07:46:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x242c…03d0 crypto 143 markets active 0h ago coverage 25d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$108 (-10%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -10% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -25% what you keep after slip
Net edge-25%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate70%100W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day9.9pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$61
7 days−$68
14 days−$107
30 days−$132
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$131
other 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-18.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 112 -4.0% -13.1% 75% 43% -18.9%
≤30d 143 -9.7% -18.3% 70% 41% -20.8%
≤90d 143 -9.7% -18.3% 70% 41% -20.8%
all 143 -9.7% -18.3% 70% 41% -20.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -18.3% 41% -20.8%
10% -26.1% 27% -28.4%
15% -33.2% 15% -35.3%
20% -39.8% 10% -41.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -12% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
40% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -10% · $-wt -12% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$6 · ×0.2 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.47 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

25d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)70%
Wins / losses100 / 43
Open positions0
Markets (closed)143 / 143
History coverage25d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day9.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 143 Trades
no open positions (28 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$4 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$3 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 15 $6 +$1 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 15 $10 +$7 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$3 +68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET Jun 15 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 15 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:05PM-9:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 15 $21 −$21 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 15 $20 +$2 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$4 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$1 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 15 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$2 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 14 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 14 $5 +$1 +22%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $10 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $10 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Up 77¢ $10 37m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET BUY Down 64¢ $5 47m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 52m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:35AM-2:40AM ET BUY Down 60¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Up 76¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Down 54¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 79¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 75¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Up 48¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 36¢ $10 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET BUY Down 58¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $10 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET BUY Up 96¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 368 history records