Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T15:16:50+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
24 0x242e…2383 world 20 markets active 2h ago coverage 86d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$2,305 (+3%) realized +$2,296 · open +$9
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -8% what you keep after slip
Net edge-8%after slip
Net WR67%break-even
Win rate78%14W / 4L
Whale WR67%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$3,658per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$87est.
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$1,711now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,326
7 days+$1,326
14 days+$3,031
30 days+$6,761
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 52% −$9,006
finance 18% +$1,923
crypto 16% +$5,938
other 6% +$1,335
sports 4% +$856
politics 3% +$983
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +67%
net ROI/market (all)+1.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +53.8% +39.2% 100% 100% +40.4%
≤30d 7 +27.4% +15.3% 86% 71% +18.5%
≤90d 18 +12.0% +1.3% 78% 67% -6.3%
all 18 +12.0% +1.3% 78% 67% -6.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~10%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +1.3% 67% -6.3%
10% ← realistic here -8.4% 50% -15.3%
15% -17.3% 44% -23.5%
20% -25.4% 22% -31.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 31% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 67% (≥$5,000) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -3% → late +27% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,172 vs −$3,596 · ×0.33 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.14 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

86d coverage
Net worth$1,711
Realized+$2,296
Unrealized+$9
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses14 / 4
Whale WR (big bets)67%
Est. fees paid−$87
Open positions2
Markets (closed)18 / 20
History coverage86d
Avg bet$3,658
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 18 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $1,452 $1,462 +$10 (+1%)
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $250 $249 −$1 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1,003 +$458 +46%
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $1,399 +$868 +62%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $2,154 +$1,431 +66%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $615 −$574 -93%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? Jun 09 $7,639 +$849 +11%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? May 27 $8,000 +$742 +9%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 23 $3,066 +$2,988 +98%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $4,575 +$304 +7%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? Apr 22 $4,985 +$2,099 +42%
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? Apr 17 $4,500 +$644 +14%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? Apr 14 $8,000 −$8,000 -100%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 14 $5,000 −$5,000 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? Apr 14 $2,500 +$1,109 +44%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? Apr 13 $2,500 +$983 +39%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? Mar 30 $2,500 −$811 -32%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $100 by end of March? Mar 30 $6,000 +$1,681 +28%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in March? Mar 30 $2,000 +$1,197 +60%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $95 by end of March? Mar 27 $5,000 +$1,053 +21%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $1,465 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 68¢ $1,003 20h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $257 39h
Will United States win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 61¢ $1,399 2d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs $69 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs $103 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Knicks 66¢ $2,439 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 29¢ $1,089 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs SELL Spurs 73¢ $1,077 7d
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 64¢ $962 7d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks $103 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks SELL Knicks $25 12d
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 19¢ $512 12d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 90¢ $7,639 23d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $8,742 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 26, 2026? BUY No 91¢ $8,000 26d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $6,054 29d
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? BUY No 45¢ $3,066 36d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? SELL No 79¢ $4,879 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? SELL No 99¢ $7,084 60d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $4,985 64d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? SELL Yes 57¢ $5,144 64d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026? BUY No 74¢ $4,575 68d
Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in April? BUY Yes 48¢ $4,500 68d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? SELL Yes 94¢ $3,609 68d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? SELL Yes 99¢ $3,483 69d
Will Bitcoin reach $75,000 in April? BUY Yes 63¢ $2,500 72d
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar? BUY Yes 71¢ $2,500 72d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? BUY No 70¢ $5,000 83d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 15? BUY No 84¢ $8,000 83d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,710.92 · official $1,711.13 (match) · 45 history records