Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T00:40:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

6.5
score
24 0x2432…3ef5 world 19 markets active 2h ago coverage 118d
RISKYcopy with care world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL +$7,356 (+64%) realized +$8,052 · open −$696
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +128% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +99% what you keep after slip
Net edge+99%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate56%9W / 7L
Drawdown43%max
Avg bet$601per market
Trades / day0.3pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$414now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$110
14 days−$110
30 days+$42
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 99% +$7,480
sports 1% −$100
crypto 1% −$35
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)+106.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -41.3% -46.9% 33% 33% +2.7%
≤90d 10 +189.7% +162.1% 50% 40% -3.0%
all 16 +128.5% +106.7% 56% 44% +61.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +106.7% 44% +61.0%
10% +86.9% 44% +45.6%
15% +68.9% 38% +31.6%
20% +52.3% 38% +18.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 82% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +7% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +128% · $-wt +78% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +32% → late +225% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1,328 vs −$559 · ×2.38 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.06 per $1 lost it wins $3.06
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

118d coverage
Net worth$414
Realized+$8,052
Unrealized−$696
Win rate (resolved)56%
Wins / losses9 / 7
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions3
Markets (closed)16 / 19
History coverage118d
Avg bet$601
Trades / day0.3
Drawdown43%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 16 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Yes 20¢ 12¢ $360 $230 −$130 (-36%)
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? Yes 32¢ 6¢ $500 $99 −$401 (-80%)
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $250 $85 −$165 (-66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 Jun 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? Jun 21 $102 −$100 -98%
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $200 +$152 +76%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? May 26 $120 +$2,381 +1984%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 24 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 24 $30 $0 +1%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? May 24 $500 +$686 +137%
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? Apr 09 $100 −$100 -100%
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? Apr 09 $3,600 −$3,600 -100%
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? Apr 09 $500 +$992 +198%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Mar 18 $9 −$9 -98%
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $250 +$175 +70%
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? Mar 04 $500 +$38 +8%
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? Mar 04 $200 +$59 +30%
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? Mar 01 $180 −$65 -36%
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? Feb 28 $3,985 +$7,468 +187%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 0¢ $50 1h
Will Trump agree to withdraw troops from the Iranian region by June 30 BUY No 0¢ $10 4d
Will Argentina vs. Austria end in a draw? BUY Yes 23¢ $102 4d
Israel strike on Yemen by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $500 14d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? SELL Yes 100¢ $352 17d
Iran closes its airspace by June 8? BUY Yes 57¢ $200 18d
NATO x Russia military clash by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $200 29d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? BUY Yes 20¢ $360 31d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $25 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $5 32d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 24, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET BUY Up 1¢ $27 32d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? SELL No 83¢ $1,186 32d
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? BUY No 35¢ $500 32d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 25? BUY No 5¢ $120 32d
Will Bahrain strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 7¢ $100 98d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET BUY Down 47¢ $9 99d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $425 113d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? SELL Yes 42¢ $538 113d
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? SELL Yes 23¢ $26 113d
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? SELL Yes 22¢ $112 113d
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? SELL Yes 26¢ $121 113d
Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? BUY Yes 34¢ $500 115d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? SELL Yes 31¢ $115 116d
Will Alireza Arafi be the next Supreme Leader of Iran? BUY Yes 49¢ $180 116d
Will Iran strike Cyprus in March? BUY Yes 18¢ $200 116d
Will Saudi Arabia strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 31¢ $250 116d
Will UAE strike Iran by March 31? BUY Yes 39¢ $500 116d
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? BUY Yes 43¢ $3,600 117d
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? SELL Yes 93¢ $11,454 117d
US strikes Iran by March 3, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $3,985 118d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $413.61 · official $421.49 · 36 history records