Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T03:30:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2433…8482 other 37 markets active 2h ago coverage 266d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$7 (-1%) realized −$7 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate22%8W / 29L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$1
other 34% −$7
sports 7% $0
politics 6% −$2
finance 4% $0
tech 3% $0
culture 3% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-10.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +3.0% -6.8% 50% 17% -9.3%
≤30d 14 +1.7% -8.0% 29% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 15 -1.2% -10.6% 27% 7% -10.8%
all 37 -0.5% -10.0% 22% 5% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.0% 5% -10.3%
10% -18.6% 0% -18.9%
15% -26.5% 0% -26.7%
20% -33.7% 0% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 60% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
75% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late -2% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.44 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.3 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

266d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$7
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)22%
Wins / losses8 / 29
Open positions0
Markets (closed)37 / 37
History coverage266d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 37 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $37 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 19 $34 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 19 $37 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 18 $4 +$1 +15%
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $67 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? Jun 17 $2 $0 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? May 26 $33 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 26 $33 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 26 $36 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $37 $0 -0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? May 25 $27 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? May 24 $33 $0 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 24 $17 +$1 +7%
Will MetaMask launch a token by June 30? Mar 23 $18 −$8 -42%
Will Wolves win on 2025-12-03? Nov 26 $17 $0 +0%
Will Burnley FC win on 2025-12-03? Nov 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win on 2025-11-29? Nov 25 $34 $0 +0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Nov 25 $20 −$2 -10%
Will Crystal Palace win on 2025-11-30? Nov 23 $18 $0 +0%
Will Espanyol win on 2025-11-24? Nov 22 $9 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win the 2025–26 La Liga? Nov 21 $9 $0 -0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-29? Nov 21 $9 $0 +0%
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? Nov 20 $9 $0 +0%
Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential ele Nov 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Brighton win on 2025-11-22? Nov 20 $27 $0 +0%
Will Barcelona win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Fulham win on 2025-11-22? Nov 19 $27 $0 +0%
Will Charlie Kirk be the #1 searched person on Google this year? Nov 18 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 24 $27 $0 +0%
Will the Seattle Seahawks win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 23 $24 $0 -1%
Will Trump pardon Elizabeth Holmes in 2025? Oct 23 $3 $0 -3%
Will Chelsea win the 2025–26 Champions League? Oct 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will the Milwaukee Brewers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 19 $5 $0 +11%
Will the Detroit Tigers win the 2025 World Series? Oct 12 $24 +$1 +3%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 29 $2 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? Sep 27 $26 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $37 1h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $37 2h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $7 7h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 94¢ $26 9h
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 94¢ $34 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $37 24h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $37 27h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 15¢ $4 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? BUY Yes 13¢ $4 36h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $15 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $18 41h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $33 43h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $34 2d
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $34 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $2 2d
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 2d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? SELL No 93¢ $33 24d
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $33 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $23 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL Yes 47¢ $11 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 48¢ $4 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $1 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY Yes 47¢ $29 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL No 57¢ $36 24d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY No 57¢ $36 24d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? SELL No 92¢ $37 25d
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? BUY No 92¢ $37 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL No 54¢ $27 25d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY No 54¢ $27 25d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 66¢ $34 25d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 131 history records