Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:59:51+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
24 0x2433…99ae sports 156 markets active 2h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$22 (+0%) realized +$22 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate33%51W / 105L
Whale WR58%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$138per market
Trades / day5.8pace
Fees−$546est.
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$191
7 days+$191
14 days+$43
30 days−$233
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 98% −$400
other 2% −$471
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-23.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 +171.3% +145.5% 67% 67% +55.8%
≤30d 27 -16.6% -24.5% 26% 26% -31.5%
≤90d 156 -14.9% -23.0% 33% 29% -13.2%
all 156 -14.9% -23.0% 33% 29% -13.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -23.0% 29% -13.2%
10% -30.4% 29% -21.5%
15% -37.1% 28% -29.1%
20% -43.2% 26% -36.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 26% · top 2 39% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
12% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 58% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -18% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
2.1 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$137 vs −$75 · ×1.83 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$22
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)33%
Wins / losses51 / 105
Whale WR (big bets)58%
Est. fees paid−$546
Open positions0
Markets (closed)156 / 156
History coverage81d
Avg bet$138
Trades / day5.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 156 Trades
no open positions (19 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic Jun 24 $51 +$199 +388%
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro Jun 24 $153 −$150 -98%
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson Jun 24 $63 +$142 +226%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands Jun 14 $45 −$44 -98%
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka Jun 14 $152 −$73 -48%
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson Jun 13 $22 −$21 -97%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand Jun 13 $18 +$82 +460%
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland Jun 13 $54 −$53 -98%
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen Jun 11 $16 −$16 -98%
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens Jun 11 $23 −$23 -98%
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent Jun 09 $32 +$43 +132%
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 09 $36 −$4 -10%
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Yasmine Kabbaj Jun 05 $18 −$17 -97%
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet Jun 05 $8 +$10 +117%
Birmingham: Nikola Bartunkova vs Mika Stojsavljevic Jun 05 $22 −$13 -62%
Birmingham: Rebeka Masarova vs Mary Stoiana Jun 05 $15 +$6 +41%
Birmingham: Taylah Preston vs Ashlyn Krueger Jun 05 $10 +$5 +54%
Roland Garros WTA: Marta Kostyuk vs Mirra Andreeva Jun 04 $7 −$7 -97%
T20 Blast: Surrey vs Middlesex Jun 03 $20 −$20 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Francisco Cerundolo vs Zachary Svajda May 30 $25 −$24 -95%
Indian Premier League: Gujarat Titans vs Rajasthan Royals May 29 $48 −$20 -41%
Roland Garros ATP: Alex Michelsen vs Rafael Jodar May 29 $10 −$10 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Thiago Agustin Tirante vs Pablo Carreno Busta May 29 $18 −$18 -98%
Indian Premier League: Sunrisers Hyderabad vs Rajasthan Royals May 27 $219 −$117 -53%
Roland Garros ATP: Tallon Griekspoor vs Matteo Arnaldi May 26 $5 −$5 -97%
Roland Garros WTA: Linda Noskova vs Maria Sakkari May 26 $51 −$50 -99%
Roland Garros ATP: Marton Fucsovics vs Matteo Berrettini May 25 $26 −$25 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard vs Novak Djokovic May 24 $26 −$24 -94%
Indian Premier League: Mumbai Indians vs Rajasthan Royals May 24 $101 −$101 -100%
Indian Premier League: Kolkata Knight Riders vs Delhi Capitals May 24 $37 −$10 -27%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Petra Marcinko May 24 $20 −$20 -100%
Geneva Open: Casper Ruud vs Mariano Navone May 24 $77 −$77 -100%
Geneva Open: Alexei Popyrin vs Casper Ruud May 21 $37 −$33 -89%
Roland Garros, Qualification ATP: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Gilles Arnau May 21 $10 −$10 -100%
Roland Garros, Qualification WTA: Anna-Lena Friedsam vs Tamara Zidanse May 21 $71 −$71 -100%
Geneva Open: Adrian Mannarino vs Raphael Collignon May 21 $139 −$139 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Alexandra Eala vs Oleksandra Oliynykova May 19 $24 −$24 -100%
Geneva Open: Stefanos Tsitsipas vs Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard May 19 $79 −$55 -70%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Daria Kasatkina vs Liudmila Samsonova May 19 $38 −$38 -100%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Jil Teichmann vs Julia Grabher May 19 $110 +$46 +42%
Geneva Open: Valentin Royer vs Francisco Comesana May 19 $74 −$74 -100%
Internationaux de Strasbourg: Magdalena Frech vs Talia Gibson May 19 $169 −$169 -100%
Hamburg European Open: Daniel Altmaier vs Ben Shelton May 19 $5 +$61 +1176%
Hamburg European Open: Hugo Gaston vs Karen Khachanov May 19 $55 +$97 +178%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Alycia Parks vs Moyuka Uchijima May 18 $84 +$68 +81%
GP SAR La Princesse Lalla Meryem: Petra Marcinko vs Vera Zvonareva May 18 $51 −$34 -66%
Hamburg European Open: Terence Atmane vs Tomas Etcheverry May 18 $40 −$21 -52%
Indian Premier League: Delhi Capitals vs Rajasthan Royals May 18 $188 −$188 -100%
Indian Premier League: Punjab Kings vs Royal Challengers Bengaluru May 18 $887 −$505 -57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic SELL Tereza Valentova 100¢ $250 2h
Bad Homburg Open: Iga Swiatek vs Emma Navarro BUY Iga Swiatek 33¢ $153 2h
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tereza Valentova vs Ajla Tomljanovic BUY Tereza Valentova 20¢ $51 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson SELL Clara Tauson 100¢ $205 3h
Bad Homburg Open: Qinwen Zheng vs Clara Tauson BUY Clara Tauson 30¢ $63 4h
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Bangladesh vs Netherlands BUY Netherlands 29¢ $45 10d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 1¢ $5 10d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 7¢ $17 10d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY West Indies 23¢ $52 10d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka SELL Sri Lanka 76¢ $119 10d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 39¢ $14 10d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 46¢ $10 10d
T20 Series West Indies vs Sri lanka: West Indies vs Sri Lanka BUY Sri Lanka 52¢ $53 10d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 4¢ $4 10d
Modena: Lucia Bronzetti vs Laura Samson BUY Laura Samson 9¢ $18 10d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand SELL West Indies 100¢ $99 10d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 21¢ $2 10d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: West Indies vs New Zealand BUY West Indies 17¢ $16 10d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 22¢ $33 11d
ICC T20 World Cup, Women: Scotland vs Ireland BUY Ireland 42¢ $21 11d
Libema Open: Robin Montgomery vs Greet Minnen BUY Greet Minnen 27¢ $16 13d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 31¢ $15 13d
Libema Open: Gabriela Ruse vs Elise Mertens BUY Elise Mertens 38¢ $8 13d
Libema Open: Panna Udvardy vs Daria Snigur BUY Panna Udvardy 35¢ $36 14d
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent SELL Essex 87¢ $75 14d
T20 Blast: Essex vs Kent BUY Essex 37¢ $32 14d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics SELL Marton Fucsovics 14¢ $32 14d
Libema Open: Hubert Hurkacz vs Marton Fucsovics BUY Marton Fucsovics 15¢ $36 15d
Makarska: Maria Timofeeva vs Yasmine Kabbaj BUY Yasmine Kabbaj 4¢ $18 18d
Foggia: Leyre Romero Gormaz vs Carole Monnet SELL Leyre Romero Gormaz 100¢ $18 19d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 558 history records