Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T12:20:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2434…c1db crypto 805 markets active 1h ago coverage 81d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$336 (-5%) realized −$336 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR44%break-even
Win rate61%492W / 313L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day13.4pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$7
7 days+$7
14 days+$7
30 days−$27
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$393
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +44%
net ROI/market (all)-11.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 10% -1.3%
≤30d 20 -20.6% -28.2% 70% 20% -27.0%
≤90d 805 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 44% -14.9%
all 805 -2.2% -11.5% 61% 44% -14.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.5% 44% -14.9%
10% -20.0% 25% -23.1%
15% -27.7% 18% -30.5%
20% -34.8% 13% -37.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
22% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -11% → late +6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$6 · ×0.5 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.78 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

81d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$336
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses492 / 313
Open positions0
Markets (closed)805 / 805
History coverage81d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day13.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 805 Trades
no open positions (79 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 13 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET May 17 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET May 16 $6 +$2 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 16 $6 +$2 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET May 16 $7 −$7 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET May 16 $6 +$2 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 16 $6 −$6 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET May 16 $7 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET May 15 $7 +$1 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET May 15 $7 +$1 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 2:45PM-2:50PM ET May 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET May 15 $6 +$2 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET May 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET May 15 $6 +$2 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET May 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET May 15 $7 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:45AM-9:50AM ET May 15 $6 +$2 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET May 15 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET May 15 $7 −$7 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 56m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 18h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 10:35AM-10:40AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 36h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 38h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 43h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 44h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $7 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $7 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $6 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET BUY Up 87¢ $7 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET BUY Down 91¢ $7 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:20AM-10:25AM ET BUY Up 73¢ $6 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 88¢ $7 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 29d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $6 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 92¢ $1 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $7 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Down 77¢ $6 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $7 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $7 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $7 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 16, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 85¢ $7 30d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $6 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2145 history records