Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T09:30:10+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2435…753b other 44 markets active 2h ago coverage 12d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$3 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -21% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate43%16W / 21L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$45per market
Trades / day4.3pace
Fees−$11est.
Kalshi-fit36%portable
Net worth$250now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$6
14 days−$9
30 days−$9
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 54% −$289
sports 46% +$279
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-28.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +19.5% +8.1% 60% 60% -4.0%
≤30d 37 -20.6% -28.1% 43% 41% -9.9%
≤90d 37 -20.6% -28.1% 43% 41% -9.9%
all 37 -20.6% -28.1% 43% 41% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -28.1% 41% -9.9%
10% -35.0% 27% -18.6%
15% -41.3% 24% -26.4%
20% -47.0% 19% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -21% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -21% → late -20% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$35 vs −$27 · ×1.29 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.98 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

12d coverage
Net worth$250
Realized+$3
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)43%
Wins / losses16 / 21
Est. fees paid−$11
Open positions7
Markets (closed)37 / 44
History coverage12d
Avg bet$45
Trades / day4.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit36%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? No 92¢ 92¢ $38 $38 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? No 91¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? No 90¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? No 90¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? No 90¢ 90¢ $37 $37 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? No 89¢ 88¢ $36 $36 −$0 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? No 71¢ 70¢ $29 $29 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 18 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $37 +$5 +13%
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? Jun 17 $38 +$4 +12%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $8 +$14 +180%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $6 $0 -8%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $17 −$17 -99%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? Jun 17 $39 +$3 +8%
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? Jun 17 $37 +$7 +20%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $15 +$7 +44%
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? Jun 17 $35 +$9 +24%
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? Jun 17 $36 +$6 +17%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $27 +$17 +62%
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? Jun 17 $29 +$13 +46%
Jordan leading at halftime? Jun 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? Jun 16 $38 −$38 -100%
Senegal leading at halftime? Jun 16 $9 −$8 -98%
Iraq leading at halftime? Jun 16 $2 −$2 -97%
Algeria leading at halftime? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $14 −$9 -62%
Argentina leading at halftime? Jun 16 $52 −$12 -24%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $51 +$142 +278%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $86 +$14 +16%
Spread: Spain (-1.5) Jun 15 $121 +$79 +65%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $186 −$31 -17%
Germany leading at halftime? Jun 14 $171 −$46 -27%
Germany vs. Curaçao: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $143 −$142 -99%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $36 −$35 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $27 −$27 -98%
LoL: T1 vs Gen.G (BO5) - LCK Road to MSI Jun 14 $102 +$126 +124%
Spread: Australia (-1.5) Jun 14 $101 +$60 +60%
Brazil vs. Morocco: Draw at halftime? Jun 14 $46 +$57 +124%
Australia leading at halftime? Jun 13 $87 −$87 -100%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $18 −$18 -98%
United States vs. Paraguay: Draw at halftime? Jun 12 $50 −$49 -98%
Will United States vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 12 $32 −$31 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY No 71¢ $29 1h
Exact Score: South Africa 1 - 2 Korea Republic? BUY No 90¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 1 - 1 Brazil? BUY No 92¢ $38 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 Mexico? BUY No 91¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Switzerland 1 - 0 Canada? BUY No 90¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Scotland 0 - 3 Brazil? BUY No 90¢ $37 1h
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 1 Mexico? BUY No 89¢ $37 1h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? SELL Yes 25¢ $5 6d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 88¢ $37 6d
Exact Score: England 2 - 1 Croatia? BUY No 89¢ $38 6d
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $6 6d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $17 6d
Portugal vs. DR Congo: Draw at halftime? BUY Yes 35¢ $8 7d
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $2 7d
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7d
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7d
Iraq vs. Norway: Draw at halftime? BUY No 68¢ $29 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 3 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 91¢ $38 7d
Exact Score: Argentina 2 - 0 Algeria? BUY No 85¢ $36 7d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Draw at halftime? BUY No 61¢ $27 7d
Will Argentina vs. Algeria end in a draw? BUY No 80¢ $35 7d
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 13¢ $6 7d
Senegal leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Exact Score: Austria 1 - 1 Jordan? BUY No 92¢ $39 7d
Jordan leading at halftime? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 7d
Will Austria vs. Jordan end in a draw? BUY No 83¢ $37 7d
Iraq leading at halftime? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 7d
Algeria leading at halftime? BUY Yes 12¢ $3 7d
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 69¢ $15 7d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 12¢ $5 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $249.89 · official $249.90 (match) · 67 history records