Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T01:07:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x243c…eefb crypto 25 markets active 2h ago coverage 2d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Small sample
✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$44 (-2%) realized −$44 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -28% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -40% what you keep after slip
Net edge-40%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%12W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$116per market
Trades / day18.8pace
Kalshi-fit80%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 79% +$146
crypto 21% −$231
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-34.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 25 -27.7% -34.6% 48% 36% -12.2%
≤30d 25 -27.7% -34.6% 48% 36% -12.2%
≤90d 25 -27.7% -34.6% 48% 36% -12.2%
all 25 -27.7% -34.6% 48% 36% -12.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover18.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -34.6% 36% -12.2%
10% -40.9% 28% -20.6%
15% -46.6% 20% -28.3%
20% -51.8% 16% -35.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 67% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -28% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -30% → late -26% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$39 vs −$42 · ×0.92 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.85 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$44
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses12 / 13
Open positions0
Markets (closed)25 / 25
History coverage2d
Avg bet$116
Trades / day18.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit80%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 25 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $1,203 +$30 +2%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Jun 22 $505 +$230 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$5 +94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$4 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$1 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $10 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET Jun 21 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Jun 21 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $104 +$65 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 21 $103 −$103 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $25 −$25 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:35PM-2:40PM ET Jun 21 $26 +$20 +79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:40PM-2:45PM ET Jun 21 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 21 $5 +$1 +28%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $208 +$25 +12%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $221 −$220 -100%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $142 +$81 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will France win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 94¢ $1,234 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $1,203 4h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $735 6h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 68¢ $505 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET SELL Down 99¢ $6 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET BUY Up 89¢ $5 27h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET SELL Down 97¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 63¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET SELL Up 62¢ $30 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET BUY Up 50¢ $26 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET SELL Down 98¢ $10 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Up 9¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET BUY Down 49¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET BUY Down 24¢ $5 28h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET SELL Up 85¢ $8 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 51¢ $5 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Down 34¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $53 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 48¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40PM-3:45PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Down 63¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $26 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $103 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET SELL Up 84¢ $169 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 49¢ $104 29h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 56 history records