Wallet analysis

2026-06-13T06:35:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

24
0x243f…b2bb
other · 52 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$94 -1%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$94 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$29
Realized−$94
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)18%
Wins / losses9 / 41
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)50 / 52
History coverage604d
Avg bet$351
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%
Chart Positions 2 History 50 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$6
14 days−$6
30 days−$6
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $17 $17 −$0 (-0%)
Will Solana reach $120 in June? No 99¢ 99¢ $13 $13 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 13 $7 $0 -0%
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 10 $9 $0 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays Jun 10 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 05 $10 $0 -0%
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 04 $10 $0 -0%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 03 $10 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? Jun 02 $19 $0 +0%
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $10 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 30 $10 $0 -0%
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 29 $10 $0 -0%
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? May 24 $10 $0 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $10 $0 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? May 22 $10 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on May 18 $45 $0 -0%
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 13 $44 $0 -0%
Avalanche vs. Wild May 12 $6 +$4 +76%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 08 $45 $0 -0%
Will Switzerland win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $45 $0 -0%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 06 $40 $0 -0%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 30 $41 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $44 $0 -0%
Will Gabriel Bortoleto be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 21 $42 $0 -0%
Will Alpine be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Apr 20 $45 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $45 $0 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 19 $27 $0 -0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 18 $27 $0 -0%
Timberwolves vs. Magic Apr 10 $4 −$4 -100%
Hawks vs. Cavaliers Apr 10 $6 −$6 -100%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 10 $12 −$12 -100%
Heat vs. Raptors Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Blue Jackets vs. Red Wings Apr 08 $8 −$8 -100%
Trail Blazers vs. Nuggets Apr 07 $3 −$3 -100%
EdgeX FDV above $2B one day after launch? Apr 06 $23 +$2 +9%
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in March? Apr 06 $47 $0 +1%
Capitals vs. Golden Knights Apr 02 $21 −$21 -100%
Hawks vs. Pistons Mar 27 $26 −$26 -100%
Raptors vs. Suns Mar 25 $21 +$25 +122%
Will Alphabet be the third-largest company in the world by market cap Mar 05 $4 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $40 in February? Mar 05 $87 +$1 +1%
Will Ethereum reach $6,000 in January? Feb 13 $87 $0 +0%
Fed decreases interest rates by 50+ bps after January 2026 meeting? Jan 08 $13,555 −$14 -0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 09 $10 $0 -1%
Will Lando Norris be the 2025 Drivers Champion? Sep 19 $29 −$1 -3%
Will the Oklahoma City Thunder win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 02 $42 −$1 -2%
Will the Cleveland Cavaliers win the 2025 NBA Finals? Apr 11 $24 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump be inaugurated? Jan 10 $264 −$2 -1%
Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 31 $1,253 −$5 -0%
Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? Oct 28 $735 −$4 -1%
Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? Oct 23 $1,316 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
economics 74% −$14
politics 20% −$17
other 3% −$11
crypto 2% +$2
sports 1% −$53
world 0% $0
tech 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Solana reach $120 in June? BUY No 99¢ $13 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in June? BUY No 100¢ $17 1h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $7 5h
Will Carlos Sainz Jr. be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $7 10h
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $9 2d
Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $9 2d
Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays BUY Boston Red Sox 49¢ $5 4d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $10 7d
Will Kim Kardashian win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $10 7d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 9d
Will 12 or more Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $10 9d
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $10 10d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $10 12d
Will Paraguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 13d
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 13d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Tony Thurmond win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 14d
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $11 17d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Meta have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 19d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $10 20d
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 20d
Will Ethereum reach $3,600 in May? BUY No 100¢ $19 21d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $10 22d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $10 22d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on SELL No 100¢ $45 25d
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on BUY No 100¢ $45 25d
Will Yoaz Hendel be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $44 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-22.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 3 -33.4% -39.8% 0% 0% -33.1%
≤30d 15 -6.8% -15.6% 13% 0% -12.3%
≤90d 38 -18.3% -26.1% 16% 5% -16.5%
all 50 -14.0% -22.2% 18% 4% -10.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.2% 4% -10.0%
10% -29.7% 4% -18.6%
15% -36.5% 4% -26.5%
20% -42.7% 4% -33.7%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $29.48 · official $29.48 (match) · 258 history records