Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T08:51:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2441…3458 crypto 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 1d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (101 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 1d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$78 (-2%) realized −$50 · open −$28
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR33%break-even
Win rate78%63W / 18L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$46per market
Trades / day101.0pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$16now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 1d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$190
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (101 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +33%
net ROI/market (all)-13.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -4.2% -13.3% 78% 33% -13.4%
≤30d 81 -4.2% -13.3% 78% 33% -13.4%
≤90d 81 -4.2% -13.3% 78% 33% -13.4%
all 81 -4.2% -13.3% 78% 33% -13.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover101.0 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.3% 33% -13.4%
10% ← realistic here -21.6% 1% -21.7%
15% -29.2% 0% -29.3%
20% -36.1% 0% -36.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
44% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -8% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$25 · ×0.18 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

1d coverage
Net worth$16
Realized−$50
Unrealized−$28
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses63 / 18
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage1d
Avg bet$46
Trades / day101.0
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Down 88¢ 32¢ $44 $16 −$28 (-63%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 28 $47 −$42 -90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET Jun 28 $46 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 28 $44 −$21 -46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET Jun 28 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET Jun 28 $45 −$15 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 28 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET Jun 28 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 28 $48 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$9 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET Jun 28 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET Jun 28 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET Jun 28 $47 −$25 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 28 $48 −$32 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET Jun 28 $46 −$31 -68%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET Jun 28 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:35PM-11:40PM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:30PM-11:35PM ET Jun 28 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 28 $44 −$25 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 28 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 28 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:50PM-10:55PM ET Jun 28 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 28 $44 −$22 -49%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 28 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 28 $46 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 28 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 28 $46 +$11 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:25PM-9:30PM ET Jun 28 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 28 $45 −$19 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:25PM-8:30PM ET Jun 28 $45 −$20 -45%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 28 $45 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 28 $44 −$21 -47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 27 $46 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 27 $45 +$5 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 27 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 27 $47 −$26 -56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 27 $47 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 27 $44 +$6 +14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 27 $47 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 27 $48 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 27 $44 +$7 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 27 $45 +$5 +10%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET BUY Down 88¢ $44 2m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET SELL Up 10¢ $5 16m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $47 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:20AM-4:25AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $46 28m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $24 31m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET BUY Up 87¢ $44 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 4:05AM-4:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 43m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $45 58m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $30 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:45AM-3:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:30AM-3:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET BUY Down 89¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 87¢ $44 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:50AM-2:55AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:45AM-2:50AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $48 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 90¢ $45 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 82¢ $45 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:55AM-1:00AM ET BUY Down 94¢ $47 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:50AM-12:55AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET SELL Up 47¢ $23 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:45AM-12:50AM ET BUY Up 94¢ $47 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:20AM-12:25AM ET BUY Up 89¢ $45 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET SELL Down 33¢ $16 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 95¢ $48 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET SELL Down 30¢ $14 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 28, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $46 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET BUY Down 92¢ $46 4h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $16.25 · official $21.25 · 165 history records