Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T18:01:23+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x2448…6228 crypto 592 markets active 21h ago coverage 87d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$232 (-6%) realized −$232 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -3% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -19% what you keep after slip
Net edge-19%after slip
Net WR40%break-even
Win rate49%287W / 303L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$7per market
Trades / day17.8pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$2now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$24
7 days−$15
14 days−$15
30 days−$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 99% −$270
sports 1% +$3
other 1% −$17
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +40%
net ROI/market (all)-12.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 61 -4.4% -13.5% 38% 36% -19.3%
≤30d 61 -4.4% -13.5% 38% 36% -19.3%
≤90d 590 -3.2% -12.4% 49% 40% -15.8%
all 590 -3.2% -12.4% 49% 40% -15.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover17.8 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.4% 40% -15.8%
10% -20.8% 33% -23.8%
15% -28.5% 25% -31.2%
20% -35.5% 20% -37.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 7% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -7% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.7 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$4 · ×0.78 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

87d coverage
Net worth$2
Realized−$232
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)49%
Wins / losses287 / 303
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)590 / 592
History coverage87d
Avg bet$7
Trades / day17.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 590 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Yes 8¢ 8¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 21 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -62%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 17 $1 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 17 $1 −$1 -58%
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 16 $3 −$1 -39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET Jun 16 $10 −$6 -61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 16 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -95%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -98%
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? Jun 16 $3 −$3 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 16 $2 $0 -15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $3 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 -26%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 16 $1 $0 -8%
Will Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 +$4 +344%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 +$2 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Jun 15 $5 +$8 +144%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -96%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +117%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 +$3 +122%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Spain vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 15 $1 +$5 +503%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +63%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $1 −$1 -52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 14 $4 +$4 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 14 $3 $0 +12%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$5 +50%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$1 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 14 $1 +$1 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 14 $1 $0 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 14 $2 +$2 +87%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 14 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $17 −$13 -79%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:20PM-2:25PM ET Jun 13 $3 +$2 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$4 -73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 13 $5 −$1 -18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 13 $1 −$1 -95%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET SELL Up 13¢ $0 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Up 31¢ $1 20h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET SELL Down 50¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET SELL Down 8¢ $0 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $1 22h
Will Uzbekistan vs. Colombia end in a draw? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 22h
Will Ghana vs. Panama end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $1 22h
Will Croatia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 17¢ $1 22h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $1 22h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET SELL Up 28¢ $2 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET BUY Up 42¢ $3 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET SELL Down 15¢ $4 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50PM-4:55PM ET BUY Down 35¢ $10 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $5 45h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET BUY Down 23¢ $1 45h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 14¢ $1 47h
Will France vs. Senegal end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $2 47h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET SELL Down 46¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:25AM-10:30AM ET BUY Down 42¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET BUY Up 13¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Up 15¢ $0 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Up 37¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET SELL Down 64¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET SELL Down 72¢ $4 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET BUY Down 51¢ $3 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET SELL Down 31¢ $1 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET BUY Down 38¢ $1 2d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 2d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.12 · official $2.12 (match) · 1887 history records