Wallet analysis

2026-06-26T08:42:11+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
24 0x244d…6154 crypto 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 161d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$39 (-0%) realized −$33 · open −$6
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -9% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -18% what you keep after slip
Net edge-18%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate55%111W / 90L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$87per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$98now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 43% −$4
politics 16% −$3
other 16% −$11
sports 14% −$30
world 5% +$1
tech 2% $0
culture 2% $0
weather 1% $0
finance 1% $0
economics 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)-17.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +0.2% -9.3% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 10 -9.8% -18.4% 90% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 100 -4.2% -13.3% 71% 7% -9.5%
all 201 -9.1% -17.8% 55% 6% -9.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -17.8% 6% -9.7%
10% -25.6% 5% -18.4%
15% -32.8% 3% -26.3%
20% -39.4% 2% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 20% · top 2 37% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
89% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -9% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late -4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.51 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

161d coverage
Net worth$98
Realized−$33
Unrealized−$6
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses111 / 90
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)201 / 202
History coverage161d
Avg bet$87
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 201 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $270? No 100¢ 94¢ $104 $98 −$6 (-6%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 26 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? Jun 26 $104 $0 +0%
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi Jun 19 $10 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 30? Jun 19 $12 $0 +0%
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control Jun 19 $14 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? Jun 19 $68 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? May 31 $68 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in May? May 30 $79 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? May 29 $90 $0 +0%
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage May 28 $4 −$4 -99%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? May 28 $108 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? May 26 $107 $0 +0%
Joventut vs. Burgos May 25 $7 +$2 +31%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? May 25 $99 $0 +0%
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? May 24 $105 $0 +0%
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of May 18 2026? May 23 $105 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? May 22 $105 $0 +0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres May 21 $5 +$3 +62%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? May 21 $97 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $95 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 20 $199 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 20 $102 $0 +0%
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton May 19 $5 +$2 +36%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? May 19 $97 $0 +0%
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $91 $0 -0%
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 18 $92 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 17? May 18 $102 $0 +0%
Will Croatia win Eurovision 2026? May 17 $101 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 16 $101 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 14? May 15 $101 $0 +0%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 14 $95 $0 -0%
LoL: G2 Esports vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - Esports World Cup EMEA Qualif May 14 $2 −$1 -98%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 13? May 14 $102 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on May 12? May 13 $102 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 12 $102 $0 +0%
Seattle Mariners vs. Houston Astros May 11 $2 −$2 -98%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? May 11 $95 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84,000 and $86,000 on May 10? May 11 $104 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 7 to May 9, 2026? May 10 $104 $0 +0%
Will the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series? May 09 $95 $0 -0%
Will Netflix, Inc. (NFLX) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of May 4 2026? May 09 $104 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 7? May 08 $104 $0 +0%
Will Norway win Eurovision 2026? May 07 $92 $0 -0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 5? May 07 $104 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft (MSFT) close above $390 on May 4? May 05 $104 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on May 3? May 04 $103 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 115-139 tweets from April 30 to May 2, 2026? May 03 $103 $0 +0%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $125 Week of April 27 2026? May 02 $104 $0 +0%
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026? May 01 $103 $0 +0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 mee Apr 30 $103 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Amazon (AMZN) finish week of June 22 above $270? BUY No 100¢ $104 1h
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,000 June 15-21? BUY No 100¢ $104 6d
Will Elon Musk post 1080-1119 tweets in May 2026? BUY No 100¢ $68 25d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $68 27d
Will Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Electi BUY No 100¢ $10 27d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $375 in May? BUY No 100¢ $79 27d
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 22°C on May 30? BUY No 100¢ $12 27d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,200 on May 28? BUY No 100¢ $90 29d
Will Google have the #1 AI model at the end of May 2026 (Style Control BUY No 100¢ $14 29d
Dota 2: Team Yandex vs Aurora (BO1) - BLAST Slam Group Stage BUY Team Yandex 57¢ $4 29d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 26? BUY No 100¢ $108 30d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 25? BUY Yes 100¢ $107 32d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 24? BUY Yes 100¢ $99 32d
Joventut vs. Burgos BUY Joventut 76¢ $7 32d
Will the Iran ceasefire continue through May 22? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 33d
Will Natural Gas (NG) hit (LOW) $2.70 Week of May 18 2026? BUY No 100¢ $105 34d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 21? BUY Yes 100¢ $105 35d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 20? BUY Yes 100¢ $97 37d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $95 37d
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. San Diego Padres BUY Los Angeles Dodgers 61¢ $5 37d
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $95 37d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $92 37d
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $92 37d
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? BUY No 100¢ $102 37d
Counter-Strike: Team Falcons vs BC.Game Esports (BO1) - CS Asia Champi BUY BC.Game Esports 21¢ $1 38d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 18? BUY No 100¢ $97 39d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $91 39d
Hamburg European Open: Marcos Giron vs Ben Shelton BUY Ben Shelton 73¢ $5 39d
Will Khaled Mashal win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $91 39d
Will Vladimir Putin win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 99¢ $92 39d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $97.75 · official $97.02 (match) · 397 history records